***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-06.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 96 4 0 100 9999.0 0.0 15.0 -5.4 2.9 7.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 92 8 0 100 19.4 16.7 15.2 -5.1 4.3 9.4 20.6 21.8 22.4 30 Becej 27400G00 96 4 0 100 18.6 16.7 15.3 -5.3 4.3 9.1 21.3 21.8 23.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 97 3 0 100 9.7 7.7 12.2 -6.3 1.7 5.6 13.0 14.4 16.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 97 3 0 100 18.5 16.1 13.7 -5.6 3.4 8.4 20.7 22.1 23.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 92 8 0 100 18.3 15.3 12.5 -5.1 7.0 12.6 19.7 21.1 22.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 93 7 0 100 19.5 16.6 15.2 -5.0 4.7 9.6 20.4 21.7 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 89 11 0 100 9.3 8.1 13.5 -4.3 10.1 15.8 10.5 11.3 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 97 3 0 100 18.1 16.3 14.8 -5.3 5.2 9.5 21.0 22.0 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 93 7 0 100 18.4 16.9 13.9 -4.7 7.9 13.2 20.4 22.2 23.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 94 6 0 100 18.5 16.3 13.9 -5.2 6.6 10.8 20.4 22.5 23.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 90 10 0 100 18.1 16.9 14.0 -4.5 9.7 14.7 19.9 21.9 22.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 89 11 0 100 19.8 18.4 14.2 -4.4 10.5 15.3 20.8 22.4 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 89 11 0 100 19.8 18.4 15.0 -4.7 8.2 13.6 21.3 22.5 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 96 4 0 100 17.2 15.6 13.3 -6.6 1.4 4.5 19.8 21.4 23.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 93 7 0 100 19.6 17.5 13.8 -5.2 7.4 11.4 21.2 22.7 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 93 7 0 100 19.4 16.2 15.0 -4.8 4.5 9.9 20.1 21.2 21.6 30 Palic 37000G16 86 14 0 100 18.2 16.9 13.7 -4.3 10.8 16.0 20.4 21.6 22.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 92 8 0 100 19.0 16.5 15.3 -5.0 4.3 9.8 20.9 21.7 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 77 23 0 100 15.9 15.1 12.6 -3.4 14.6 21.0 16.5 17.9 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 96 4 0 100 18.3 16.5 14.9 -5.6 3.0 8.0 20.9 22.2 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 92 8 0 100 19.8 16.2 15.1 -4.8 3.3 10.1 20.9 21.8 22.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 91 9 0 100 19.4 17.7 15.5 -4.9 5.6 11.0 20.8 21.7 22.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 90 10 0 100 19.5 17.9 14.8 -4.7 8.6 13.2 20.9 22.3 23.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 96 4 0 100 18.2 15.4 13.5 -5.8 2.3 6.4 20.0 21.5 22.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 91 9 0 100 19.6 18.8 14.2 -4.0 12.9 17.1 20.2 22.2 22.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 96 4 0 100 18.7 15.8 14.4 -5.4 3.3 7.6 20.3 21.9 22.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 96 4 0 100 17.4 15.3 12.8 -6.5 2.3 5.7 19.5 21.7 23.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 80 20 0 100 14.8 13.9 13.4 -3.8 13.5 19.0 16.0 17.3 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 94 6 0 100 18.9 16.7 15.3 -5.2 4.2 9.0 20.9 21.9 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------