***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-27.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.6 -0.8 29.8 35.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 6.1 6.1 8.2 -0.8 27.1 35.0 6.5 7.3 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 8.2 8.9 8.4 -0.8 30.9 36.1 8.9 9.6 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 3.8 3.7 6.0 -1.3 24.7 27.2 3.9 4.4 5.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 5.5 5.8 6.5 -0.9 28.1 32.9 5.9 7.2 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 5.0 5.8 5.0 -0.7 36.1 36.5 5.7 6.3 6.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 6.3 6.1 8.2 -0.9 26.2 34.6 6.4 7.4 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 1.4 1.7 5.6 -0.5 38.9 41.4 1.6 2.0 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 6.3 7.0 7.2 -0.7 33.3 37.7 6.9 7.9 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 6.4 6.7 6.0 -0.6 37.5 39.6 6.6 7.4 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 5.9 6.2 6.3 -0.7 33.3 36.2 6.2 7.2 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 5.0 5.9 6.1 -0.6 36.5 39.4 5.7 6.3 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 5.4 6.1 5.7 -0.6 34.3 38.5 6.1 6.6 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 7.0 7.3 7.3 -0.5 38.6 41.5 7.1 8.0 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 6.3 6.5 6.7 -1.2 25.7 26.9 7.1 7.9 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 6.6 7.2 5.9 -0.8 32.3 35.3 7.2 8.0 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 6.5 6.2 8.0 -0.8 27.1 35.5 6.4 7.8 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.4 6.1 5.6 -0.4 39.7 42.4 5.8 6.4 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 6.4 6.3 8.2 -0.8 29.9 36.0 6.4 7.6 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 1.8 2.9 4.5 -0.2 43.5 46.9 2.5 3.2 3.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 5.7 6.2 8.0 -0.8 29.6 35.3 6.5 7.2 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 5.7 5.6 8.0 -0.8 29.3 35.9 5.7 6.9 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 6.3 6.6 8.2 -0.6 34.9 38.3 6.3 7.3 7.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 6.2 6.8 7.1 -0.5 38.0 40.8 6.5 7.2 7.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 6.4 6.5 7.1 -1.0 27.9 31.6 6.8 7.7 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.8 6.6 6.0 -0.5 39.1 41.1 6.5 6.8 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 6.0 6.3 7.8 -0.9 29.1 34.1 6.9 7.7 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 4.6 5.1 6.3 -1.2 25.6 27.8 5.6 6.4 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 4.7 5.0 5.3 -0.2 41.4 46.0 4.7 5.3 6.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 6.4 6.3 8.4 -0.8 27.8 35.0 6.5 7.7 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------