***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2013.-27.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 7.7 0.3 50.0 53.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.2 5.1 7.4 0.3 48.6 53.4 4.0 5.6 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.8 7.2 7.4 0.3 50.2 53.8 5.2 7.2 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 2.7 1.5 5.2 0.0 46.3 51.0 0.5 1.8 3.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.3 4.7 5.5 0.1 49.7 52.2 3.8 4.7 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.6 4.1 3.9 0.1 48.8 53.6 3.3 4.2 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.1 7.4 0.3 51.3 53.4 3.8 5.7 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 1.1 1.1 4.5 0.3 56.7 55.8 -1.3 0.5 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.5 5.8 6.2 0.2 53.0 53.2 4.3 5.7 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.6 5.0 0.3 54.8 54.6 4.0 5.2 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.8 5.3 0.2 53.6 54.1 3.7 5.5 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 4.6 5.4 5.1 0.3 56.2 55.3 2.8 4.0 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.8 4.5 0.2 52.7 53.7 3.7 5.6 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.2 6.2 0.4 51.8 55.1 4.4 6.0 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.9 4.6 5.7 0.1 48.2 51.6 4.0 4.8 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.1 4.8 0.1 51.1 53.4 4.7 6.0 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.2 5.5 7.1 0.3 49.5 53.2 3.8 5.7 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 4.8 4.5 4.6 0.3 53.4 55.3 3.3 4.2 5.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.4 5.1 7.4 0.3 47.6 53.8 3.8 5.8 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.6 2.7 3.4 0.4 51.7 56.5 -0.2 2.2 3.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.2 5.6 7.0 0.2 49.7 52.4 4.0 5.6 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.0 7.0 0.3 45.3 53.1 2.9 5.4 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.8 4.5 7.2 0.3 47.7 54.4 3.7 5.1 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 5.7 5.1 6.1 0.4 52.2 55.2 3.7 5.0 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.2 5.1 6.1 0.1 46.3 51.9 4.3 5.6 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.8 5.4 4.8 0.2 52.8 53.9 4.4 5.2 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 6.4 5.6 7.0 0.2 49.0 53.0 4.0 5.7 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.6 3.9 5.4 0.0 46.7 51.4 3.5 4.0 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.5 4.2 0.4 54.1 56.3 1.2 2.9 6.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.7 5.8 7.5 0.3 49.1 53.4 3.9 6.1 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------