***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.9 0.3 51.4 52.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.2 6.7 8.6 0.4 51.2 53.3 4.1 6.5 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 7.2 9.1 8.6 0.3 48.5 52.2 6.8 9.1 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 4.6 3.0 6.2 -0.2 41.2 46.3 2.2 4.3 5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.4 4.5 6.5 0.0 41.4 48.4 3.4 5.4 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.8 3.5 4.9 -0.1 41.3 47.0 2.6 4.5 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 4.3 6.0 8.6 0.4 49.8 53.0 4.0 6.0 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -0.8 0.5 5.4 0.0 40.8 49.2 -0.8 1.4 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.4 6.4 7.2 0.2 45.5 50.7 4.9 6.5 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.2 5.0 5.9 0.1 41.2 49.7 4.7 6.1 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.8 4.7 6.2 0.0 42.2 48.2 4.2 5.5 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.5 3.6 5.9 -0.1 41.9 48.2 3.3 4.2 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.9 3.7 5.3 -0.1 43.2 47.1 3.0 4.7 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.1 7.0 7.4 0.5 52.5 55.0 4.4 6.7 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.8 5.8 6.7 -0.2 44.2 46.4 4.6 6.3 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.5 5.6 5.7 -0.1 42.2 46.9 5.3 6.1 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.5 6.5 8.5 0.5 53.7 54.4 4.2 6.2 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 3.4 4.4 5.5 0.1 42.1 51.2 3.3 5.5 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.8 6.9 8.6 0.4 51.7 53.5 4.0 6.9 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 -0.7 1.0 4.4 0.2 44.1 51.6 -0.3 1.3 3.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.0 5.9 8.1 0.2 48.7 51.1 4.7 5.9 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.0 6.1 8.4 0.5 54.3 54.7 3.5 5.8 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.5 6.4 8.4 0.4 51.2 53.8 3.9 6.4 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.9 5.4 7.1 0.3 45.6 52.9 4.2 5.7 6.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.5 6.1 7.2 0.0 44.7 49.6 4.7 6.4 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.8 4.8 5.9 0.1 44.6 49.9 4.1 5.1 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 4.3 6.2 8.1 0.2 47.8 51.2 4.4 6.4 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.1 3.6 6.4 -0.2 42.9 46.1 2.4 4.5 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 2.8 4.6 5.1 0.2 44.3 52.1 2.4 5.0 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.5 7.1 8.7 0.3 49.7 52.7 4.5 7.1 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------