***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2013.-13.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.2 -1.0 38.6 39.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 7.3 7.8 8.9 -0.9 39.8 40.8 7.6 8.1 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 9.4 10.2 8.9 -1.0 37.3 39.3 10.0 10.5 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 4.5 4.9 6.6 -1.5 27.3 32.1 5.2 5.8 7.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 6.2 6.0 6.9 -1.2 29.8 35.8 6.4 8.1 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 5.6 5.6 5.4 -1.2 33.7 36.7 5.6 7.5 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.0 8.9 -0.9 39.6 40.7 7.5 8.3 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 1.8 2.7 6.0 -0.8 36.8 40.8 2.4 3.0 3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 7.7 7.5 7.6 -1.0 33.7 39.4 7.4 9.1 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 7.0 7.9 6.4 -0.9 34.9 39.9 7.8 8.1 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 6.7 6.6 6.7 -1.1 30.8 37.3 6.7 7.7 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 5.8 5.8 6.5 -1.0 34.4 39.4 5.8 6.8 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 6.1 6.1 5.9 -1.1 34.8 39.0 5.9 7.9 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 7.6 8.3 7.8 -0.7 40.7 42.9 8.0 8.6 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 7.7 7.3 7.0 -1.5 27.0 31.4 7.8 8.8 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 7.5 7.4 6.2 -1.2 31.7 36.3 7.5 9.0 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 9.3 8.1 8.9 -0.7 42.1 43.1 7.3 8.8 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 6.2 7.0 6.0 -0.8 38.4 42.0 6.5 7.6 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 7.3 7.8 8.9 -0.9 39.5 40.7 7.6 8.1 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 4.1 3.0 5.1 -0.4 43.4 45.7 2.0 3.7 4.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 6.6 6.3 8.4 -1.0 34.5 39.2 6.2 8.2 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 6.6 7.1 8.8 -0.6 40.8 43.1 6.9 7.5 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 7.0 7.7 8.7 -0.8 39.3 40.9 7.4 8.3 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 6.6 7.6 7.5 -0.8 37.7 41.1 7.3 7.9 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 7.1 7.6 7.5 -1.2 33.6 37.3 7.5 8.3 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 6.7 6.6 6.4 -0.9 41.0 40.5 6.2 8.1 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 6.5 7.8 8.4 -1.0 36.3 39.3 7.3 8.1 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 5.6 5.9 6.8 -1.5 27.7 32.1 6.1 7.1 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 5.8 6.2 5.7 -0.6 40.7 43.9 6.2 6.6 7.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 9.2 8.1 9.0 -0.9 38.6 40.0 7.8 8.5 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------