***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-26.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 20.9 27.3 34.0 79.7 43.3 40.8 14.2 31.4 54.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 42.5 36.5 36.3 87.0 50.6 44.8 15.1 36.0 51.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 23.4 29.5 34.6 78.5 40.6 40.3 20.5 33.4 81.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 37.4 43.3 38.8 75.8 40.2 40.1 33.7 63.1 85.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 27.2 37.1 38.0 74.9 40.4 39.0 29.1 41.3 56.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 28.3 36.0 40.4 75.0 40.3 38.8 26.5 48.3 64.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 38.5 30.6 36.8 87.4 49.6 44.7 17.0 30.6 48.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 39.6 47.9 42.4 82.8 45.6 42.2 44.1 51.7 77.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 27.2 29.6 38.0 75.0 38.7 39.0 28.4 38.4 50.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 33.0 36.6 42.0 78.5 42.2 40.1 33.2 41.4 69.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 31.2 40.3 37.1 79.8 46.8 42.3 27.7 44.7 64.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 27.8 39.5 36.2 81.8 48.1 42.9 25.9 40.0 57.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 27.2 37.4 37.2 75.6 43.7 39.4 26.4 40.7 62.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 40.2 51.0 45.9 87.9 44.5 44.1 41.1 56.9 92.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 20.8 30.7 38.5 76.8 42.8 40.9 22.6 37.6 64.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 25.0 30.9 37.2 78.4 46.3 41.5 23.2 36.1 52.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 31.8 26.4 38.0 92.6 52.4 47.4 16.8 25.3 44.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 32.4 38.8 47.4 80.9 39.4 40.0 35.9 47.5 60.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 49.3 35.8 35.7 85.1 47.7 43.7 20.0 37.8 67.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 38.6 41.2 58.7 85.3 41.4 41.7 38.8 49.3 64.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 25.2 32.5 34.6 73.6 39.5 38.6 28.3 38.2 56.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 42.9 41.1 39.4 94.8 51.8 47.9 22.2 36.7 46.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 50.6 30.7 36.8 84.5 45.4 43.0 25.7 39.4 67.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 30.9 29.4 43.0 81.9 40.3 41.0 27.7 44.5 69.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 22.3 26.7 38.3 74.6 39.1 38.9 18.8 34.1 62.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 29.4 41.9 35.7 79.3 45.9 41.0 31.5 43.0 53.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 19.5 24.4 37.8 79.5 42.2 40.8 16.0 29.9 52.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 23.5 36.9 38.1 77.2 42.8 41.2 22.0 43.0 57.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 49.4 51.9 51.7 84.2 39.8 41.4 48.8 62.3 83.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 39.3 26.6 35.5 84.5 47.2 43.6 20.2 29.5 59.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------