***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.10.2014.-26.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9.6 28.1 9.4 117.9 76.1 56.0 2.5 4.9 11.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.6 14.5 10.8 134.9 79.0 59.3 0.1 3.3 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.6 22.2 10.0 116.4 73.7 55.3 2.0 6.4 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.7 18.5 10.3 94.0 68.9 55.4 2.3 7.2 17.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 11.5 16.2 10.4 101.5 70.5 54.2 2.4 6.8 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.4 7.9 10.7 101.2 65.5 53.3 0.8 4.3 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.0 12.4 11.1 137.2 76.7 59.2 0.3 3.9 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 4.6 20.7 12.1 116.0 71.2 51.7 4.6 8.3 16.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.8 9.2 10.5 103.5 70.0 53.3 3.0 6.0 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.7 10.9 11.8 108.2 68.8 51.9 3.8 6.3 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.0 14.4 10.6 114.7 72.5 54.2 2.1 3.7 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 7.4 10.5 10.5 120.5 74.6 53.2 1.6 5.7 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.6 11.7 10.5 112.1 68.7 54.5 2.0 5.2 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 15.0 24.0 12.6 122.6 72.0 55.4 4.5 10.4 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.6 10.5 10.5 91.4 70.4 55.0 1.0 2.5 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.7 13.7 10.3 112.6 70.4 55.1 1.7 3.8 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.5 13.9 11.2 143.0 76.3 60.0 0.7 2.1 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 10.2 10.4 13.0 108.1 69.4 52.1 3.9 6.2 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.2 22.3 10.4 129.0 77.4 58.1 1.8 5.4 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.9 13.8 15.6 109.1 68.4 50.9 4.2 8.6 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.7 14.1 9.5 103.8 71.5 54.2 2.2 7.6 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 7.4 17.8 11.4 142.6 77.0 59.7 0.8 3.9 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.4 23.5 10.3 124.2 75.1 57.0 1.4 9.3 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.6 17.4 12.0 113.1 69.7 54.1 1.1 6.4 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.0 14.2 10.4 104.5 70.4 55.9 1.3 4.5 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 4.2 19.3 10.7 124.7 72.7 53.9 2.2 8.8 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 8.4 24.5 10.5 118.0 73.7 57.4 0.7 3.8 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.3 9.5 10.2 95.0 69.3 55.1 0.7 5.0 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 4.6 20.4 13.8 109.2 68.5 52.0 6.3 8.2 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 7.6 15.6 10.5 130.2 77.2 58.3 0.9 5.5 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------