***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.10.2014.-19.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 1.2 5.0 9.9 87.3 60.9 45.3 0.1 3.1 6.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 1.2 7.0 10.6 96.8 60.8 48.0 0.6 2.9 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 0.6 5.5 9.7 85.9 57.9 45.0 0.5 1.6 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 2.1 6.8 10.6 80.8 57.3 44.6 1.4 5.3 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 1.7 5.4 10.2 78.3 57.1 43.3 0.7 4.6 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 1.6 5.0 11.1 75.6 49.9 41.3 0.6 5.0 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 0.9 6.9 10.8 101.2 61.8 48.8 0.7 1.8 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 3.9 11.5 10.7 78.9 55.0 44.8 3.1 10.2 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.3 8.0 10.1 76.8 57.2 42.6 0.5 6.1 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 3.6 10.4 10.8 77.4 55.8 43.7 2.3 9.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.4 8.5 9.5 80.4 58.0 45.3 0.7 5.8 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 1.8 7.8 9.0 78.4 56.3 43.9 0.9 4.8 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 2.4 8.4 10.1 78.6 52.1 41.6 1.1 7.1 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 3.2 12.7 13.4 97.2 59.6 48.7 0.8 7.8 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 1.0 5.0 10.9 84.2 60.1 45.7 0.5 2.4 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 1.8 6.1 9.9 82.7 56.6 43.9 1.4 5.2 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.7 6.9 11.1 104.9 63.5 50.6 0.2 1.9 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 1.9 8.1 12.4 79.9 55.3 44.1 2.1 4.0 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.9 8.6 10.5 93.1 61.6 47.3 0.5 7.3 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 3.2 10.1 15.4 80.2 56.3 44.2 1.3 8.4 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 1.2 5.9 9.6 78.5 56.4 43.2 0.1 4.0 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 1.2 6.6 11.5 104.2 65.8 50.9 0.4 2.7 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 1.2 12.1 10.9 92.2 62.6 47.3 0.3 3.2 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 1.6 5.8 11.7 86.9 56.3 45.3 0.4 4.2 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 0.8 4.1 10.9 81.8 55.6 43.4 0.5 2.1 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.4 5.3 8.9 70.9 48.5 39.8 1.1 5.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 1.6 5.4 11.0 88.6 58.1 45.3 0.9 4.3 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 1.5 5.4 10.6 83.6 58.7 45.3 1.5 3.9 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 4.7 11.1 13.4 80.8 55.1 44.3 4.2 10.5 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 1.3 8.2 10.3 94.5 60.5 47.5 0.5 3.1 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------