***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.6 5.9 10.0 87.9 60.4 46.0 0.3 4.5 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.8 13.7 10.1 88.9 59.5 46.7 1.5 7.8 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 12.8 9.9 9.7 79.6 55.8 43.7 0.8 8.1 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 16.4 15.4 11.5 82.3 59.3 47.1 4.4 12.1 18.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.5 7.4 11.0 77.6 56.6 45.2 2.6 4.8 16.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.5 10.4 12.0 75.7 59.4 45.4 3.6 7.9 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.7 14.9 10.4 93.4 60.3 47.4 1.2 10.2 17.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.4 11.5 79.5 58.3 44.8 9.8 12.5 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.9 11.7 10.8 75.4 57.0 43.1 1.9 7.9 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.6 11.3 75.8 56.5 43.2 3.0 8.3 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.4 9.7 10.1 76.5 57.6 44.7 2.3 4.6 16.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 11.6 13.5 9.8 77.9 60.8 45.9 1.6 8.4 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.2 10.1 10.4 74.2 58.4 45.9 2.8 5.8 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.2 9.6 12.1 82.1 54.6 43.4 2.7 8.7 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.6 10.5 11.5 85.3 60.7 47.2 1.1 5.2 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.4 8.6 10.6 77.0 57.7 45.5 1.2 6.1 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.6 11.0 10.8 97.1 60.0 48.9 0.4 7.8 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 16.8 12.7 12.6 76.1 52.6 42.9 4.4 11.5 18.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 13.3 15.1 9.9 86.1 58.0 45.4 0.9 6.7 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 6.4 13.8 17.5 89.6 53.9 44.7 5.6 11.4 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.5 9.9 75.7 57.0 43.2 4.1 7.4 19.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.6 13.1 11.2 94.0 59.4 47.1 0.1 10.3 19.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.1 9.7 10.0 84.2 58.0 44.2 1.6 7.5 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 2.3 4.7 11.4 76.6 52.8 42.1 3.3 4.3 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.1 11.4 81.3 57.3 45.8 2.1 10.5 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.5 11.1 9.9 79.9 62.9 46.1 4.7 7.1 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.3 8.8 11.1 85.7 59.7 46.0 0.6 4.6 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.5 11.3 83.1 60.5 47.5 1.2 9.7 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 23.2 19.3 14.1 80.8 51.9 43.4 6.3 17.3 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.0 9.9 86.4 58.7 46.0 0.8 8.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------