***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 1.5 1.1 4.7 39.0 35.7 32.2 1.0 4.6 10.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 1.2 1.4 4.8 42.3 37.0 33.2 1.0 4.6 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 3.1 3.3 5.1 43.0 36.7 32.3 2.9 7.5 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 6.9 12.0 6.4 48.7 40.5 35.3 10.1 15.5 19.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 5.6 10.1 6.5 48.6 40.1 33.9 8.1 13.5 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 3.1 2.8 6.6 51.7 39.3 34.4 1.5 8.6 20.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 1.6 1.7 4.5 37.1 39.1 29.9 1.2 6.3 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 5.8 10.4 8.1 63.8 41.5 37.6 6.2 13.8 23.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 5.9 8.1 6.6 50.7 42.5 35.5 4.4 11.0 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 5.7 9.1 8.0 59.1 41.9 37.3 6.5 11.3 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 4.7 12.5 6.8 56.5 44.4 36.7 2.7 12.8 16.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 1.7 2.8 6.9 60.5 40.9 36.8 2.3 5.2 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 1.7 2.9 6.1 47.9 35.7 31.0 2.6 6.8 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 4.1 9.2 7.8 58.1 42.1 37.4 6.1 11.1 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 4.5 5.8 5.6 46.2 41.3 35.7 2.3 9.6 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 1.6 1.0 6.4 51.0 37.7 32.6 0.7 5.8 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 0.9 2.3 4.9 42.6 41.3 32.9 0.5 3.4 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.2 6.4 9.3 64.9 42.1 38.8 5.3 9.3 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 1.8 3.6 5.0 44.6 36.1 33.1 3.0 7.3 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 4.5 6.1 10.1 64.4 38.3 36.2 4.2 11.1 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 3.9 7.3 5.7 44.9 42.6 34.5 4.9 9.9 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 1.4 3.6 5.3 49.8 41.6 35.7 0.8 5.4 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 2.5 4.1 5.5 48.2 37.4 33.2 3.6 9.9 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 5.1 10.3 7.8 58.3 43.0 37.1 6.6 11.0 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 3.0 4.5 5.7 40.2 38.6 31.6 3.6 8.0 19.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 2.0 3.6 6.1 53.7 43.3 36.3 1.4 5.4 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 1.9 3.6 5.2 38.9 36.7 31.5 2.2 5.8 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 4.6 7.3 6.0 48.8 40.1 34.8 4.5 12.2 18.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 7.9 14.3 10.4 71.0 45.7 40.6 6.3 15.4 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 2.0 2.6 4.8 41.2 35.2 31.9 2.0 6.8 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------