***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.10.2014.-26.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 16.2 15.5 15.6 0.2 50.2 52.3 14.5 15.5 17.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 16.0 15.2 15.4 0.0 45.8 50.3 14.3 15.4 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.1 16.4 15.7 0.1 48.7 51.8 15.6 16.4 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.6 13.9 0.3 51.3 53.4 7.5 9.3 10.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 17.7 17.4 14.3 0.4 51.5 53.9 15.4 17.2 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 16.9 16.5 13.5 0.7 50.1 55.0 14.5 16.5 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 16.2 15.3 15.3 0.0 45.4 51.0 14.1 15.7 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.3 13.6 0.5 52.0 53.6 6.6 8.1 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 17.9 17.4 14.9 0.3 50.7 53.4 15.5 17.4 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 16.9 16.4 14.1 0.4 51.2 53.3 14.8 16.4 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 18.0 17.5 14.3 0.5 51.2 54.1 15.3 17.4 18.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 17.4 17.1 14.2 0.5 52.2 53.4 15.3 16.7 18.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 18.0 17.3 13.9 0.5 51.3 53.6 15.7 17.2 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 17.6 16.8 14.8 0.2 47.0 51.6 15.0 17.1 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.2 13.9 0.2 50.3 52.5 13.4 15.2 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 18.5 17.9 14.1 0.5 51.3 54.0 16.3 17.9 19.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.3 15.1 -0.1 47.0 50.3 13.4 15.4 16.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.7 13.8 0.4 49.4 52.8 13.8 15.7 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 16.6 15.6 15.5 0.0 46.9 50.4 14.1 16.0 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.3 13.8 12.1 0.6 50.2 54.1 12.3 13.8 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 17.6 17.1 15.3 0.3 50.7 53.1 15.3 17.1 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 16.6 15.9 15.2 -0.1 49.0 50.0 14.1 16.0 17.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 16.6 15.7 15.6 0.0 47.7 50.8 14.4 16.0 17.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 18.0 17.5 14.9 0.3 48.6 52.2 15.2 17.6 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.7 14.3 0.3 52.4 53.6 13.9 15.4 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 17.5 16.9 13.8 0.5 49.8 53.5 15.5 16.9 18.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.0 15.0 0.2 50.7 53.0 15.2 15.9 18.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.5 14.0 0.3 50.9 53.0 14.2 15.4 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.4 12.5 13.1 0.5 48.8 53.3 11.1 12.9 14.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 16.1 15.3 15.5 0.0 46.3 50.8 14.1 15.4 17.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------