***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.10.2014.-19.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 18.3 18.8 17.3 0.5 59.5 56.5 15.8 17.7 20.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 18.5 19.1 17.2 0.4 57.7 55.1 15.9 18.0 19.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.8 19.4 17.5 0.6 58.3 57.1 16.3 18.3 19.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.7 11.6 15.5 0.4 54.0 55.4 8.8 11.3 12.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 18.9 19.1 16.0 0.6 57.7 57.2 16.3 18.3 19.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 17.3 18.4 15.1 0.8 60.8 58.0 15.5 16.4 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 18.1 18.4 17.1 0.4 57.7 55.0 15.5 17.5 18.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.4 15.3 0.8 61.2 58.2 7.1 8.6 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 18.9 19.4 16.6 0.8 58.5 58.1 16.4 18.3 20.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 18.4 18.9 15.9 0.9 60.5 58.6 16.0 17.8 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 18.5 19.3 16.0 0.7 58.9 57.7 16.3 17.9 20.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 18.2 18.5 15.9 0.7 60.1 57.1 15.9 17.4 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 18.8 18.8 15.5 0.6 57.9 56.4 16.8 18.1 20.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 19.7 19.9 16.9 1.0 60.6 59.1 17.2 19.4 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 17.6 17.6 15.5 0.3 52.5 53.7 15.8 17.3 18.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 19.2 19.0 15.7 0.6 57.4 56.9 17.3 18.4 20.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 17.9 17.9 16.9 0.4 56.9 54.8 15.6 17.4 19.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 18.2 19.3 15.7 1.0 61.4 59.7 15.5 17.8 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 18.4 19.2 17.4 0.5 58.6 56.0 16.0 17.9 19.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.3 13.9 1.0 59.1 59.4 12.8 14.3 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 19.0 19.0 17.1 0.6 57.7 57.3 16.2 18.5 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 18.8 19.1 17.1 0.5 58.3 55.2 16.2 18.3 19.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 18.5 19.3 17.5 0.7 59.6 57.5 16.1 18.0 19.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 19.4 20.0 16.8 1.0 60.8 59.3 16.5 19.1 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 17.8 18.4 16.0 0.5 59.2 56.7 15.8 17.3 19.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 17.9 17.7 15.3 0.4 58.4 55.0 16.4 17.0 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 18.4 18.8 16.7 0.6 61.0 56.8 16.0 17.8 19.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 18.0 17.7 15.7 0.4 52.6 54.9 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 14.3 15.0 15.0 1.1 60.3 59.9 12.2 13.7 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 18.1 18.7 17.3 0.4 58.2 55.5 15.8 17.5 19.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------