***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 19.1 19.8 18.0 -1.1 34.3 43.0 19.7 20.7 21.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 21.6 19.9 18.0 -1.0 38.1 43.8 18.6 21.2 21.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 19.4 19.7 18.2 -1.0 35.8 44.6 19.7 21.1 22.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 11.5 11.3 16.3 -1.2 33.9 41.0 11.2 13.9 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 19.3 19.5 16.8 -1.0 32.8 43.9 19.5 21.1 22.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 18.5 18.0 15.7 -1.0 34.5 42.8 17.9 20.6 22.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 18.9 19.2 17.9 -1.0 37.6 43.0 19.0 20.8 21.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 9.6 9.4 16.0 -0.8 36.8 47.1 9.2 11.8 12.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 19.7 19.9 17.3 -0.9 35.1 45.2 19.7 21.6 22.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 19.1 19.9 16.5 -0.8 37.0 46.9 19.8 21.1 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 19.4 20.6 16.7 -0.9 34.0 45.0 20.5 21.6 22.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 18.9 19.7 16.6 -1.0 33.7 44.4 19.6 21.2 22.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 19.8 19.9 16.2 -1.1 32.3 41.9 20.0 21.9 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 19.5 20.8 17.6 -0.5 44.2 49.6 19.8 21.5 22.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 18.2 18.2 16.3 -1.3 31.8 38.2 18.2 20.1 22.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 20.2 20.3 16.4 -1.1 32.1 42.8 20.4 22.7 23.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 20.9 19.6 17.8 -0.9 40.8 44.7 18.6 20.4 21.4 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 18.5 19.6 16.3 -0.6 42.0 49.0 18.8 19.8 21.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 21.4 19.4 18.2 -0.9 39.6 45.1 19.0 21.1 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 15.4 17.9 14.5 -0.5 42.9 50.1 15.0 17.9 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 19.5 19.9 17.8 -1.0 35.1 44.0 19.6 21.3 21.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 19.6 19.7 18.0 -0.7 42.5 46.3 19.0 21.4 22.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 19.7 20.3 18.4 -0.8 42.1 47.1 19.5 21.3 22.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 19.5 20.5 17.5 -0.7 41.5 48.3 19.9 21.3 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 18.9 19.4 16.7 -1.1 35.6 43.4 19.2 20.3 21.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 19.4 19.3 16.1 -1.2 33.1 41.1 19.3 21.2 22.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 19.3 19.9 17.4 -1.0 35.3 44.0 19.7 21.1 21.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 18.1 17.3 16.4 -1.3 31.8 39.4 17.5 20.5 22.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 13.9 16.3 15.6 -0.5 43.2 49.9 14.7 16.7 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 19.3 19.2 18.1 -1.1 35.8 43.3 19.0 21.1 21.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------