***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 21.9 20.1 19.4 -1.1 34.9 35.2 19.6 21.4 22.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 22.4 21.1 19.5 -1.0 35.8 37.1 20.8 21.9 23.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 20.2 20.7 19.6 -1.1 34.0 35.7 20.5 21.9 23.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 11.5 12.6 16.9 -1.6 27.2 29.4 13.1 13.9 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 19.6 20.2 18.0 -1.3 30.5 32.2 20.8 21.8 23.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 18.6 19.2 16.2 -1.4 29.9 30.8 19.7 20.6 22.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 22.2 21.0 19.4 -1.0 37.4 37.5 20.5 21.9 22.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 9.5 10.1 16.7 -1.1 31.2 32.3 10.1 11.2 12.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 19.6 20.4 18.9 -1.2 32.1 33.7 20.6 21.9 23.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 19.4 19.9 17.5 -1.2 32.2 33.0 20.1 21.8 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 19.5 20.1 17.8 -1.4 30.4 31.2 20.6 22.0 22.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 18.9 19.5 17.3 -1.4 29.9 30.4 20.0 21.1 23.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 20.0 20.2 17.4 -1.4 29.4 30.0 20.7 22.0 24.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 22.6 21.9 19.0 -0.8 37.4 38.3 21.2 22.1 23.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 18.4 19.4 18.2 -1.8 25.7 27.7 20.3 21.3 22.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 20.4 21.5 17.6 -1.4 30.7 31.0 21.6 22.4 23.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 21.7 20.7 19.2 -0.9 41.6 39.6 20.2 21.4 21.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 21.9 20.5 17.1 -0.9 36.0 35.6 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 22.1 20.6 19.6 -0.9 35.5 37.6 20.3 21.7 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 18.1 16.8 15.7 -0.5 39.3 39.3 15.9 17.7 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 19.8 20.7 19.5 -1.2 33.4 34.4 20.5 21.8 23.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 22.4 21.6 19.4 -0.8 41.8 40.8 20.3 22.2 22.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 22.2 20.7 19.7 -0.8 35.7 38.4 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 22.6 20.8 18.7 -0.9 35.9 36.7 20.3 22.1 23.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 19.6 20.0 18.2 -1.2 33.5 34.0 19.8 21.3 22.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 19.9 19.7 16.9 -1.3 29.6 30.1 20.0 22.0 23.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 22.1 21.1 19.0 -1.0 36.8 36.4 20.8 21.6 22.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 18.6 19.3 17.5 -1.7 27.1 28.7 20.0 21.8 23.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 17.3 15.8 16.8 -0.6 39.0 38.6 15.4 16.9 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 22.3 20.8 19.6 -1.1 34.1 36.2 20.7 21.8 22.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------