***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-26.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 6.8 7.5 9.1 -0.4 40.8 43.4 6.9 7.7 8.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.7 7.2 9.0 -0.3 44.8 46.4 6.5 7.4 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 8.9 9.4 9.0 -0.3 42.9 44.8 9.0 9.8 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.0 4.2 6.6 -0.5 37.1 40.3 4.1 4.4 5.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 7.6 6.3 6.8 -0.4 39.6 42.7 6.1 7.3 7.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.2 5.4 -0.3 43.8 45.0 5.8 6.5 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.4 8.9 -0.3 44.9 44.6 6.7 7.6 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 2.4 2.0 5.8 -0.1 45.8 47.8 1.6 2.1 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 8.3 7.4 7.4 -0.3 42.4 44.8 7.1 8.0 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.7 7.2 6.2 -0.2 45.2 47.1 6.8 7.6 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 7.6 7.0 6.6 -0.4 41.5 44.0 6.4 7.4 7.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.1 6.3 -0.3 41.7 44.0 5.8 6.5 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 7.1 6.4 5.7 -0.5 37.8 41.0 6.3 6.8 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 8.2 8.0 7.6 -0.1 47.0 48.9 7.3 8.1 8.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 6.8 7.1 7.1 -0.6 28.6 37.8 7.4 8.0 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.5 6.1 -0.5 39.4 41.8 7.5 8.0 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 8.0 7.8 8.8 -0.1 48.1 48.6 6.7 7.9 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 6.9 6.5 5.7 -0.1 44.8 48.2 5.9 6.7 7.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 7.9 7.6 9.0 -0.2 46.5 47.3 6.7 7.7 8.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 3.7 3.4 4.5 0.0 47.7 51.1 2.5 3.5 3.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 6.2 7.1 8.4 -0.3 40.6 44.2 6.5 7.3 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 7.2 7.0 8.8 -0.1 50.4 48.8 6.0 7.0 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 7.6 7.4 8.8 -0.1 48.6 48.2 6.7 7.4 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.3 7.4 -0.1 43.4 47.7 6.8 7.3 7.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 6.9 7.2 7.5 -0.5 37.1 42.2 7.1 7.9 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 5.9 6.6 5.9 -0.6 33.6 39.5 6.6 7.1 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 6.6 7.5 8.3 -0.4 39.1 43.1 6.9 7.9 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 5.2 5.9 6.8 -0.6 33.4 38.8 5.8 6.6 6.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.5 5.3 0.0 48.0 49.8 4.8 5.6 6.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.1 7.7 9.1 -0.3 44.2 45.1 6.7 7.8 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------