***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.10.2014.-26.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 6.0 7.5 8.1 0.7 59.7 57.8 4.2 5.4 7.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.1 6.5 7.8 0.7 56.1 57.1 4.3 5.4 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.9 8.9 7.8 0.8 60.2 58.7 6.1 7.2 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 3.0 3.1 5.5 0.8 64.1 59.1 0.7 2.2 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.7 6.1 5.8 0.9 66.6 60.2 4.2 5.3 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 5.8 5.8 4.4 1.1 69.5 62.2 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.4 6.4 7.8 0.6 57.1 56.6 4.4 5.7 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 1.5 2.3 4.8 1.1 66.9 62.2 -1.0 1.0 2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.6 8.0 6.4 0.9 64.8 60.2 4.2 6.1 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 6.3 6.7 5.2 1.1 67.1 61.4 4.6 6.0 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 6.0 6.5 5.6 1.0 67.8 61.5 4.4 5.8 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 5.3 6.1 5.3 1.0 67.3 61.5 3.5 5.0 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 5.9 6.4 4.8 0.9 68.0 60.0 4.4 5.8 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.7 7.4 6.4 0.9 62.9 59.9 4.9 6.3 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.5 6.0 5.9 0.7 64.2 58.7 4.5 5.2 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.9 7.3 5.1 0.9 68.2 60.4 5.5 6.7 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.5 7.5 0.6 55.5 56.2 4.3 5.7 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 5.3 5.8 4.7 1.1 65.1 61.0 3.4 5.0 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.2 6.9 7.8 0.8 57.8 58.1 3.9 5.6 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 3.2 3.3 3.6 1.1 61.7 60.7 0.6 3.0 3.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.1 7.1 7.3 0.9 61.8 59.1 4.7 5.7 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 5.6 6.0 7.5 0.6 57.0 56.6 3.8 5.1 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.4 7.6 0.8 59.9 59.2 4.2 5.6 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 5.8 6.5 6.3 1.0 64.2 60.4 4.0 5.5 6.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.2 7.2 6.4 0.8 63.4 58.9 4.8 5.7 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.2 5.0 0.7 62.8 57.5 4.4 5.7 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.8 8.0 7.3 0.8 61.8 58.2 4.1 6.2 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 4.5 5.2 5.7 0.7 63.8 58.6 3.4 4.3 5.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 4.0 5.4 4.4 1.1 63.0 61.2 2.0 3.4 5.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.7 7.2 8.0 0.7 57.7 57.4 3.9 6.0 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------