***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.10.2014.-19.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 6.9 7.3 9.2 0.6 64.2 58.1 4.6 6.4 7.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.1 7.7 8.9 0.6 62.4 57.6 4.0 6.7 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 9.0 9.7 8.8 0.5 60.8 57.2 6.5 8.7 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 4.3 4.7 6.3 0.2 54.3 53.6 2.1 4.0 5.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.3 6.5 0.3 54.8 54.8 3.4 5.5 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 5.1 4.5 5.1 0.1 50.5 53.3 2.6 4.5 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.9 7.2 8.9 0.6 62.7 57.6 4.2 6.5 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 1.6 1.9 5.5 0.3 54.8 55.6 -1.0 1.1 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 6.8 7.1 7.2 0.4 57.8 56.3 5.0 6.4 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 6.5 7.0 5.9 0.4 57.6 56.5 4.8 6.1 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.1 6.3 0.3 54.0 55.1 3.8 5.9 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.5 6.0 0.1 50.7 53.0 3.3 4.3 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.9 4.6 5.3 0.0 47.2 50.5 2.9 5.3 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 7.1 7.4 7.2 0.4 56.8 56.1 4.8 6.7 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 7.2 6.9 6.8 0.1 52.8 53.1 5.1 6.8 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.1 6.4 5.8 0.1 49.1 52.1 5.0 6.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 6.6 7.2 8.8 0.7 61.8 59.2 4.6 6.2 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 5.7 6.1 5.4 0.4 58.1 56.5 3.6 5.4 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.3 7.5 8.8 0.5 61.8 57.4 4.1 6.9 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 1.9 2.4 4.4 0.5 59.1 57.6 0.0 1.4 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 6.3 6.7 8.2 0.5 60.1 56.9 4.5 5.6 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.3 8.6 0.6 60.9 58.2 3.8 5.9 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 6.7 6.9 8.4 0.4 58.6 56.6 4.3 6.1 7.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 6.5 6.4 7.1 0.4 56.8 56.3 4.7 6.3 6.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.2 7.0 7.3 0.4 58.4 56.8 4.4 6.6 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.3 5.7 -0.1 47.8 49.0 4.1 5.4 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 7.1 7.9 8.3 0.6 61.7 57.8 4.1 6.7 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.0 4.8 6.5 0.1 52.9 52.5 2.7 4.5 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 5.4 5.4 5.1 0.5 57.5 57.0 2.7 5.2 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.5 7.9 9.1 0.5 63.2 57.4 4.5 7.1 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------