***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 7.4 7.2 9.3 -1.3 28.4 35.8 7.2 8.4 10.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 7.3 7.1 9.2 -1.1 28.2 37.9 7.5 8.9 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 9.5 9.6 9.0 -1.2 27.0 36.3 10.1 11.2 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 4.9 4.9 6.5 -1.7 20.2 28.9 5.4 6.5 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 6.0 5.6 6.7 -1.5 24.6 31.3 6.6 8.2 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 5.4 5.0 5.5 -1.4 25.5 33.1 5.7 7.1 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 7.4 7.3 9.1 -1.2 27.8 36.4 7.4 9.2 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 1.8 2.1 5.7 -1.2 25.8 35.2 2.7 3.4 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 7.5 7.7 7.3 -1.4 26.9 34.2 8.1 8.8 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 6.9 6.7 6.0 -1.3 26.6 34.9 7.5 8.4 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 6.2 6.5 6.5 -1.5 24.8 31.6 6.8 7.5 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 5.4 5.4 6.2 -1.4 25.2 32.6 5.5 6.4 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 5.8 5.7 5.7 -1.6 25.9 31.2 5.8 7.2 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 7.5 8.0 7.5 -1.1 27.2 37.2 8.3 9.3 9.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 7.5 7.2 7.0 -1.8 19.9 28.2 7.8 8.8 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 7.4 7.0 6.1 -1.6 24.3 30.4 7.5 9.3 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 7.8 7.8 9.0 -0.9 31.8 39.5 8.0 9.3 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 5.8 6.3 5.6 -1.2 27.0 35.7 6.5 7.6 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 7.3 7.3 9.2 -1.0 28.0 38.3 7.9 9.0 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 2.0 1.6 4.6 -1.0 29.8 38.6 2.1 3.3 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 6.4 6.8 8.3 -1.4 26.9 34.5 6.9 8.3 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 7.1 7.0 9.0 -0.9 33.5 40.0 6.9 8.4 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 7.0 7.0 8.9 -1.1 27.1 37.7 7.4 9.1 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 6.5 7.0 7.3 -1.2 26.1 36.0 7.3 8.1 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 7.0 7.1 7.4 -1.5 25.4 32.2 7.4 8.8 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 6.2 5.8 6.1 -1.5 23.7 31.4 6.3 7.6 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 6.8 6.7 8.4 -1.4 27.4 34.5 7.4 9.3 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 5.6 5.3 6.8 -1.7 20.4 28.8 6.1 7.4 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 5.7 6.1 5.2 -1.2 27.7 36.1 6.3 6.9 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 7.7 7.5 9.3 -1.2 28.0 37.0 7.8 9.3 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------