***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 7.9 8.5 10.0 -1.6 33.4 30.2 8.5 10.0 11.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 7.9 8.8 10.1 -1.2 34.2 34.5 8.6 9.8 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 10.3 10.6 10.1 -1.3 34.6 32.4 10.6 11.9 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 5.4 6.0 7.9 -1.4 32.7 31.6 6.1 7.3 8.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 6.8 7.1 8.3 -1.3 31.5 31.3 7.1 8.7 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 6.5 6.6 6.6 -1.1 33.1 32.0 6.6 8.3 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 8.1 8.2 9.9 -1.4 32.0 31.9 8.4 9.9 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 4.3 2.9 7.1 -0.7 34.2 36.3 2.9 3.8 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 8.1 8.6 8.8 -1.2 30.7 31.9 8.9 9.9 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.2 8.0 7.6 -0.9 33.8 35.3 7.9 9.9 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 7.4 7.4 8.0 -1.2 32.8 32.3 7.4 9.3 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 6.5 6.3 7.5 -1.0 32.5 33.1 6.3 7.8 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 6.9 7.2 7.0 -1.4 32.1 30.4 7.4 8.3 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 10.5 9.1 9.2 -0.7 38.6 37.7 9.0 10.2 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 8.4 8.1 8.8 -1.6 27.0 28.1 8.5 10.4 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 8.3 8.7 7.6 -1.3 32.6 31.0 8.8 9.9 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.4 8.8 9.9 -1.0 35.3 37.0 8.6 10.0 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.0 7.3 6.9 -0.7 33.9 36.3 7.1 8.6 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.2 8.6 10.2 -1.0 35.8 35.7 8.6 9.8 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.0 3.9 5.4 -0.5 34.0 37.2 3.7 4.5 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 7.7 8.2 9.8 -1.3 31.7 30.8 8.2 9.7 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.1 7.9 10.2 -0.8 38.1 38.0 7.8 8.6 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.5 8.6 10.3 -0.8 38.1 37.5 8.5 8.9 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.0 8.4 8.9 -0.8 35.0 36.6 8.2 9.8 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 7.7 8.6 8.9 -1.6 31.3 29.4 8.7 9.7 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 7.2 6.9 6.8 -1.4 28.4 29.0 7.4 9.2 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 7.9 7.9 9.3 -1.7 31.7 29.5 8.1 10.3 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 6.6 6.5 8.3 -1.5 30.6 29.5 6.9 8.7 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.0 6.6 -0.5 35.7 38.1 6.8 7.6 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 8.1 8.8 10.2 -1.3 33.2 32.8 8.7 10.1 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------