***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 23.0 39.0 44.8 97.1 56.1 49.7 14.5 37.3 54.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 23.3 39.3 40.1 93.6 51.3 49.4 15.1 38.0 53.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 23.3 40.9 43.6 95.3 54.4 48.0 21.8 33.4 75.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 73.6 78.7 52.4 94.5 55.1 48.4 33.1 63.2 85.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 29.1 46.1 46.2 92.5 54.7 47.0 33.2 43.6 55.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 31.8 46.7 45.2 84.0 45.2 42.7 26.5 49.5 63.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 38.5 35.1 41.1 96.5 53.1 50.4 17.3 30.6 47.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 66.8 59.2 48.7 90.1 50.7 46.0 45.3 59.0 73.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 28.7 43.7 45.1 91.3 53.2 45.4 27.9 39.4 50.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 51.2 44.3 48.6 90.6 52.8 45.3 34.6 42.3 59.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 32.2 47.2 44.6 90.6 51.6 46.5 28.4 44.9 60.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 50.5 45.9 44.6 92.5 51.6 47.7 25.9 45.3 57.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 50.9 47.0 47.5 92.0 52.8 47.1 26.4 41.8 62.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 44.2 59.6 54.3 98.5 54.6 48.2 41.6 56.4 94.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 48.4 39.7 50.1 88.1 51.7 45.9 24.1 37.6 64.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 44.9 40.2 46.2 92.5 52.3 47.5 25.1 37.3 51.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 32.5 27.0 40.8 94.7 52.9 49.7 14.9 26.9 44.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 56.4 54.1 52.9 95.0 54.6 47.0 34.1 48.8 57.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 26.0 46.5 41.2 94.7 52.2 49.1 20.0 41.3 65.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 57.1 61.9 64.4 99.3 56.0 50.9 39.7 48.3 75.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 26.8 42.5 44.7 94.6 54.7 47.1 26.6 38.3 55.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 41.3 35.7 41.8 91.0 51.1 47.0 22.2 34.5 53.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 24.1 51.1 44.4 98.6 55.8 49.3 25.5 37.3 67.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 31.2 47.8 50.7 98.4 56.3 47.8 28.3 44.3 80.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 43.8 42.7 50.3 97.4 55.2 49.4 19.9 34.1 65.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 54.7 48.0 48.5 94.4 53.2 48.8 31.7 44.9 55.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 39.7 36.1 47.7 98.5 55.2 50.5 16.0 29.4 53.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 26.9 47.6 48.2 89.7 51.4 46.2 23.5 47.3 57.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 75.7 76.1 56.5 97.9 55.9 48.9 46.6 64.1 84.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 20.6 37.8 41.1 94.1 52.0 48.9 20.1 32.0 61.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------