***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 10.5 11.5 11.0 91.9 59.8 50.3 2.6 6.7 16.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.8 6.6 9.3 83.3 58.0 47.9 0.1 3.8 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 10.7 13.0 11.3 98.6 60.6 50.7 2.0 7.3 16.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.5 16.7 12.2 89.9 61.9 48.9 2.7 8.1 18.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.5 11.5 12.5 102.1 63.4 51.2 3.2 7.6 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.4 8.2 11.4 91.5 61.8 48.5 2.5 5.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.3 5.7 9.2 83.1 57.9 47.4 1.6 4.1 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.8 16.9 13.8 107.5 64.3 52.5 5.1 10.6 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.0 10.9 13.4 110.1 64.8 51.8 4.1 7.8 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.2 13.2 14.6 113.9 66.2 53.4 4.6 7.6 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.6 9.1 12.3 106.3 63.5 52.2 2.5 6.9 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.8 11.8 101.6 62.5 51.1 2.6 6.5 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.6 10.7 11.8 94.5 59.4 49.3 2.9 7.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.2 21.9 14.6 113.0 64.7 53.6 5.6 10.3 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.2 11.7 79.6 59.4 47.1 1.1 5.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.3 11.6 97.6 61.9 50.3 3.2 5.4 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 4.6 3.4 8.9 77.3 56.2 46.0 1.1 2.1 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.1 11.0 15.3 116.3 67.7 54.2 5.0 6.8 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.3 13.6 9.7 86.8 58.4 48.6 2.7 4.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.3 12.7 17.0 107.2 65.6 52.6 4.3 8.0 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 12.0 14.2 12.3 106.5 63.2 52.3 2.2 8.5 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.6 6.7 9.4 77.5 54.7 46.6 0.8 5.8 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 13.7 15.5 10.7 96.8 60.8 50.1 2.9 9.8 19.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.9 15.9 13.9 112.9 64.6 53.8 3.4 9.7 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.6 11.8 12.4 93.9 62.6 50.3 1.4 5.0 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.8 11.2 11.5 87.9 58.8 48.1 2.9 9.6 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 8.7 11.5 11.6 92.2 59.4 49.9 2.3 4.3 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.2 11.5 87.8 61.2 48.7 1.1 7.0 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 13.3 16.3 15.3 112.6 66.5 53.7 5.8 9.3 15.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 8.8 9.7 10.0 88.3 58.4 49.1 0.9 5.8 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------