***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 1.2 2.9 9.9 77.1 53.3 45.7 0.1 2.8 3.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 1.3 3.0 8.5 65.9 50.6 42.8 0.0 2.8 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.1 5.4 11.3 86.4 55.8 45.9 0.3 5.0 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 2.9 10.1 14.0 101.1 63.5 49.7 1.6 6.3 11.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.5 11.5 13.2 102.5 61.2 51.1 0.6 5.2 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.0 10.5 12.8 94.4 59.4 47.1 1.1 4.5 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 0.9 2.1 8.4 65.6 50.3 42.9 0.3 2.0 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 13.0 14.1 14.8 104.9 62.6 51.4 5.9 8.8 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.3 8.2 13.3 100.6 60.0 49.6 0.8 6.1 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.8 14.2 15.1 106.8 62.7 51.2 4.2 10.0 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.0 11.7 12.7 101.6 61.6 51.1 1.3 6.2 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.8 11.5 12.8 102.2 62.8 51.6 0.9 6.0 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.7 14.7 13.3 102.0 60.3 52.1 1.5 7.9 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.5 11.8 16.2 97.4 59.0 48.4 1.6 9.3 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 1.2 11.9 14.7 105.2 67.8 50.9 0.5 2.7 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.2 8.4 12.6 101.1 61.9 49.9 1.2 4.9 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 1.8 4.1 8.1 60.2 48.2 41.1 0.4 4.2 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.7 15.4 16.9 111.1 63.9 52.0 3.8 9.1 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 1.4 4.3 9.4 72.8 52.7 43.9 0.6 2.9 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.0 13.7 19.0 108.8 63.2 53.2 4.6 8.8 13.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.5 7.2 12.0 94.1 59.2 47.7 1.7 5.4 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 2.8 4.8 9.0 62.4 47.7 41.1 0.2 5.7 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 5.7 3.3 11.4 85.6 56.6 46.3 0.4 2.7 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 8.0 11.1 15.8 105.8 62.8 49.8 2.5 5.4 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 1.6 5.1 11.1 81.5 56.1 46.4 0.8 3.5 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.1 16.1 14.0 103.5 60.8 50.5 1.9 8.5 17.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 1.7 3.9 10.0 75.5 52.0 45.0 1.2 3.8 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 1.8 11.1 14.2 107.1 65.7 51.0 1.2 4.0 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.4 21.3 18.2 114.0 64.9 53.3 8.5 12.6 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 0.7 1.7 9.2 70.6 50.2 44.0 0.4 1.7 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------