***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.7 11.6 110.7 70.4 54.8 1.4 5.4 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 11.1 15.5 11.5 117.4 70.5 58.2 3.0 9.0 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.6 13.9 11.6 104.9 68.6 53.2 2.3 7.1 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 14.4 15.5 14.0 106.5 68.2 53.9 3.3 11.3 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.4 7.8 11.1 90.8 63.1 50.7 2.4 5.3 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.2 7.8 10.0 70.9 56.8 44.1 2.8 5.9 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 11.9 14.9 11.8 121.0 70.1 58.5 1.9 10.0 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.3 13.6 9.9 78.7 61.7 48.7 6.3 10.6 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.1 10.0 84.5 61.5 49.9 2.3 8.7 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.3 10.1 10.0 79.9 61.8 49.9 3.0 8.6 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 7.2 9.3 12.0 96.8 65.9 54.9 1.6 3.9 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.3 14.6 11.2 96.3 66.7 55.3 1.1 3.1 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 7.6 10.8 13.1 103.0 67.2 59.6 1.7 4.9 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.3 17.0 13.4 100.8 65.3 51.0 3.1 8.8 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.8 12.9 14.7 105.9 70.2 56.6 0.9 3.7 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.5 8.6 12.3 98.3 65.1 53.9 1.2 2.7 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.5 12.6 12.2 126.7 71.1 59.0 0.5 7.9 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.8 10.7 80.5 59.2 48.6 6.4 10.4 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 9.8 18.8 11.7 115.1 69.6 57.0 2.0 6.6 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 13.3 17.3 16.2 103.0 64.7 58.0 5.5 10.9 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.2 14.2 11.3 99.1 65.9 52.8 3.3 8.9 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 10.8 17.6 12.4 117.1 69.5 56.9 0.3 8.4 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.7 12.4 12.1 111.9 67.7 54.5 2.0 7.3 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.5 14.6 12.2 99.7 64.9 51.8 3.4 5.6 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 5.4 12.0 12.8 104.0 66.7 54.0 4.8 10.5 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.7 10.8 83.7 60.7 47.5 1.0 5.8 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.3 9.6 12.2 108.9 68.1 55.6 2.0 4.4 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.4 10.7 12.7 97.7 67.2 53.4 0.4 2.7 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.7 20.3 12.1 86.5 60.8 50.7 7.2 15.9 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 10.8 11.0 11.4 112.7 69.0 57.3 1.8 9.0 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------