***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2020.-04.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9.4 12.0 12.3 113.5 69.8 61.9 0.9 7.5 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 7.4 15.1 10.8 120.5 71.7 62.3 0.9 5.2 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 9.7 10.2 9.4 93.6 64.1 55.2 3.3 7.5 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 18.0 15.5 12.2 82.3 58.3 53.0 6.1 14.5 18.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 12.4 13.5 9.4 74.7 54.8 50.9 5.8 10.4 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 10.9 10.6 11.0 80.6 55.2 50.7 1.8 7.4 22.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 11.1 13.7 11.6 130.7 74.6 64.7 0.7 5.8 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 19.2 16.6 10.2 71.1 51.5 48.4 6.0 16.3 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 12.3 11.8 8.4 68.9 52.1 47.6 4.7 11.1 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 16.5 14.3 8.8 62.9 48.3 44.5 6.9 14.3 20.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 15.5 12.7 7.7 59.4 51.1 46.4 3.6 12.7 21.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 10.2 8.2 8.8 71.0 54.4 50.1 2.5 6.3 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 10.3 9.1 9.4 69.9 53.4 49.2 1.9 7.3 16.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 13.5 11.5 10.2 83.0 54.6 50.8 7.6 11.0 21.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 8.3 8.0 9.0 62.8 55.6 50.0 1.9 6.1 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 9.7 9.3 9.7 74.1 54.8 51.0 1.4 7.4 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 9.1 11.9 11.6 137.3 75.1 64.4 0.4 3.8 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 12.3 11.3 10.0 71.3 52.2 46.1 5.3 10.5 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 8.5 12.7 10.4 112.6 69.2 60.2 3.2 7.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 13.8 13.0 12.2 79.7 54.7 49.7 5.5 11.5 15.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 12.0 13.8 9.1 78.8 57.5 50.8 4.2 10.3 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 10.6 12.8 11.0 126.1 72.5 62.5 0.9 5.5 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 9.6 12.5 10.2 103.8 64.8 57.4 4.3 8.0 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 12.6 11.8 8.7 73.1 53.7 47.7 3.9 10.6 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 12.3 22.4 14.0 112.2 66.3 61.6 1.6 9.1 22.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 7.3 15.9 12.3 103.6 65.9 61.1 1.4 5.1 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 13.5 16.8 13.9 121.7 70.5 64.2 1.5 5.9 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 13.1 13.5 9.7 67.9 54.6 49.1 4.4 9.8 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 18.4 19.6 11.0 77.6 53.4 47.8 8.0 15.3 29.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 7.0 12.0 10.5 113.8 70.6 61.2 1.3 5.4 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------