***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 19.9 20.0 19.8 1.6 73.8 71.2 18.0 19.2 19.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 20.1 20.3 19.8 1.6 73.6 71.1 18.3 19.3 19.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 20.2 20.5 20.2 1.5 73.9 70.2 18.5 19.4 20.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 13.0 13.4 17.1 1.5 71.6 68.9 11.6 12.2 13.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 20.2 20.3 18.4 1.4 69.7 67.1 18.6 19.6 20.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 19.5 19.8 17.0 1.4 69.9 67.2 17.8 18.7 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 19.8 19.8 19.8 1.7 74.9 72.4 18.2 19.0 19.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 45 55 100 10.6 10.5 17.2 1.2 67.6 64.8 9.1 10.0 10.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 20.4 20.5 19.1 1.4 70.6 67.9 18.6 19.8 20.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 20.0 20.1 18.1 1.5 72.0 68.6 18.1 19.6 20.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 45 55 100 20.2 20.6 18.7 1.3 68.3 65.3 18.4 19.4 20.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 19.4 20.0 18.0 1.0 64.2 62.6 18.0 19.3 20.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 20.3 20.6 18.0 1.1 64.5 63.1 18.8 20.2 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 20.7 20.7 19.3 1.6 74.4 70.8 18.9 20.1 20.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 19.4 19.3 18.4 1.4 70.8 67.8 17.9 18.6 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 20.4 21.2 18.2 1.2 66.8 64.6 19.2 20.2 21.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 19.4 19.6 19.6 1.7 75.3 73.0 17.8 18.8 19.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 19.3 19.4 17.7 1.5 71.8 68.5 17.4 18.9 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 19.8 20.1 20.1 1.6 74.2 71.1 18.3 19.2 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 16.3 16.7 15.6 1.1 68.5 64.7 14.7 15.5 16.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 20.3 20.5 19.7 1.6 73.3 70.2 18.2 19.6 20.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 19.9 20.2 19.7 1.7 77.1 73.3 18.6 19.3 19.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 20.1 20.4 20.3 1.6 74.6 71.5 18.8 19.3 20.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 20.6 20.9 19.2 1.6 73.8 70.2 18.7 20.0 20.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 19.5 19.6 18.3 1.5 72.3 69.3 17.9 18.9 19.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 19.7 19.8 17.2 0.8 60.2 59.8 18.6 19.5 20.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 20.1 20.3 19.2 1.6 74.0 71.2 18.3 19.3 19.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 19.8 20.2 17.8 1.5 71.8 68.9 17.8 18.7 19.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 15.4 15.6 17.0 1.3 69.2 66.5 13.7 14.9 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 19.8 19.9 19.8 1.5 74.1 70.6 18.2 19.3 19.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------