***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 16.8 16.6 16.7 0.7 53.9 55.1 13.7 16.3 17.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 16.3 15.8 16.6 0.7 55.1 55.7 14.2 15.7 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 17.2 16.9 16.9 0.5 54.6 53.8 15.0 16.6 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 7.5 9.8 14.2 0.5 52.5 53.6 7.8 9.6 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 17.5 16.8 15.1 0.3 49.7 51.4 15.6 16.9 18.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 16.9 16.3 13.9 0.3 51.5 51.7 14.9 16.2 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.1 16.6 0.7 55.1 56.3 13.9 15.8 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 8.9 8.3 14.3 0.1 49.0 50.4 7.3 8.4 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 17.7 16.8 15.6 0.3 49.1 51.8 15.5 17.0 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 17.1 16.4 14.9 0.3 49.9 51.5 14.5 16.4 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 17.8 16.9 15.2 0.1 49.3 50.3 15.2 17.1 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.0 14.9 0.0 48.6 49.5 15.3 16.2 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 18.0 17.2 14.5 0.1 49.7 50.1 15.9 17.3 19.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 17.3 16.8 15.8 0.4 52.0 52.2 15.3 16.7 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 14.3 15.8 14.8 0.6 55.5 54.0 14.0 15.6 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 18.7 17.9 14.9 0.2 50.1 50.7 16.4 17.9 20.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 15.7 16.0 16.4 0.8 57.5 57.1 14.0 15.3 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.4 14.8 0.3 49.5 51.5 13.5 15.4 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.4 16.8 0.6 54.6 55.0 14.2 16.1 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.8 12.8 0.3 47.6 51.2 12.9 13.9 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 17.4 17.2 16.3 0.5 52.7 53.2 15.0 16.8 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.4 16.4 0.7 56.6 56.5 14.5 15.8 17.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.3 17.0 0.5 53.5 54.0 15.0 16.0 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 17.3 16.8 15.8 0.4 51.5 52.1 16.2 16.7 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.5 15.1 0.6 53.8 54.9 13.8 16.4 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 14.9 16.7 14.4 0.0 49.0 49.5 16.0 16.7 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 17.1 16.7 16.1 0.7 53.7 55.7 14.4 16.6 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 14.1 15.9 14.5 0.5 52.9 53.3 14.4 15.8 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.6 12.3 14.1 0.3 47.7 50.9 10.9 12.9 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.1 16.6 0.6 54.4 55.1 14.1 15.8 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------