***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 18.7 19.6 19.0 1.4 64.9 62.2 16.2 18.0 20.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 19.1 19.3 18.9 1.5 65.3 62.8 16.4 18.4 19.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 18.8 19.3 19.2 1.2 62.3 60.4 16.7 18.1 20.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.7 12.6 16.6 1.2 59.3 59.9 9.6 11.3 12.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 18.8 18.9 17.4 0.9 58.5 57.1 16.9 18.0 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 18.1 17.8 16.0 0.9 57.2 56.5 16.0 17.0 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 19.9 19.6 19.0 1.6 67.8 64.2 16.0 17.7 19.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.5 9.0 16.3 0.6 55.2 54.1 7.1 8.8 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 19.0 19.2 17.9 1.0 59.6 57.5 16.6 18.4 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 18.6 18.8 17.0 0.9 58.4 56.2 16.5 18.0 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 18.7 18.8 17.4 0.7 55.0 55.0 16.4 18.0 19.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 18.3 18.4 17.1 0.5 53.0 53.2 16.1 17.6 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 18.7 18.7 16.7 0.7 55.1 54.4 16.7 17.9 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 19.6 20.2 17.8 0.9 59.5 57.3 17.2 19.1 20.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 18.0 18.2 17.2 1.3 61.0 60.8 16.2 17.6 18.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 19.5 19.2 17.1 0.8 55.9 55.5 16.9 18.8 19.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 18.1 19.2 18.8 1.6 66.3 64.7 16.2 17.4 19.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 18.2 18.8 16.8 0.8 57.8 55.9 16.0 17.7 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 18.9 19.6 19.1 1.4 64.6 61.6 16.5 18.3 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.3 14.6 0.6 56.8 54.3 12.4 14.7 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 19.0 19.2 18.5 1.2 61.7 59.5 16.6 18.4 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 19.2 19.5 18.7 1.5 65.4 63.4 16.8 18.4 19.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 19.0 19.9 19.2 1.2 64.3 60.1 16.9 18.5 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 19.2 19.8 17.9 1.0 59.5 57.4 16.6 18.8 20.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 18.0 18.6 17.4 1.3 63.2 61.3 16.3 17.4 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 18.4 17.9 16.6 0.5 55.6 54.2 16.8 17.5 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 18.8 19.2 18.4 1.5 65.7 63.0 16.5 18.0 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 18.1 18.7 16.9 1.2 59.4 59.6 16.5 17.8 18.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.4 15.0 16.0 0.7 56.0 54.8 11.6 13.8 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 18.6 19.5 19.0 1.4 65.4 62.3 16.1 17.9 19.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------