***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 22.2 22.7 22.1 3.2 78.3 77.2 20.3 20.7 21.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 22.9 23.3 22.3 3.2 78.6 76.6 20.2 20.9 21.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 22.7 23.0 22.6 3.2 77.7 76.1 20.2 21.1 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 16.3 17.4 19.1 3.0 77.6 75.2 11.8 13.4 16.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 22.8 23.2 20.9 3.2 78.2 75.3 19.7 21.5 22.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 23.3 24.0 19.6 3.6 79.7 76.9 18.9 20.7 22.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 22.6 23.4 22.3 3.3 80.5 77.9 19.6 20.6 21.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 13.5 14.1 20.0 3.4 79.4 75.7 9.5 11.5 13.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 23.0 23.5 21.7 3.3 78.6 76.0 20.1 21.2 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 22.7 23.4 20.8 3.7 80.8 77.2 19.7 20.9 22.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 23.2 23.6 21.5 3.4 78.9 75.6 19.8 21.8 22.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 23.2 23.8 20.7 3.2 78.0 74.7 19.2 21.0 22.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 23.8 24.3 21.0 3.2 78.9 75.4 20.5 21.7 23.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 23.6 24.3 22.1 3.6 78.9 77.1 19.9 21.4 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 22.5 23.2 20.7 2.9 77.2 74.4 18.5 20.4 21.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 24.2 24.6 21.0 3.3 79.0 75.6 20.8 22.5 23.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 22.2 22.7 22.0 3.3 80.1 77.5 19.7 20.2 21.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 22.3 23.1 20.5 3.7 80.5 77.2 18.9 20.0 21.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 23.0 23.4 22.6 3.3 78.0 76.5 20.1 20.8 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 19.3 19.9 18.4 3.4 80.7 76.2 14.8 17.8 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 22.8 23.4 22.3 3.3 79.0 76.6 19.7 21.0 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 23.2 24.1 22.2 3.4 80.4 77.6 19.9 20.8 22.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 23.1 23.6 22.9 3.4 79.0 76.9 20.2 21.1 22.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 23.3 23.8 22.0 3.6 79.1 76.8 19.4 21.2 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 22.1 22.4 20.7 3.0 76.8 75.5 19.5 20.7 21.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 23.0 23.6 19.9 2.8 75.1 72.6 20.0 21.2 22.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 22.4 22.8 21.6 3.2 79.3 77.3 20.4 21.0 21.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 23.1 24.1 20.1 3.2 78.7 75.8 18.1 20.4 22.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 18.5 19.2 19.8 3.6 80.2 76.6 14.4 16.5 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 22.6 23.0 22.3 3.1 78.2 76.5 19.9 20.8 21.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------