***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2020.-04.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 90 10 100 21.7 22.1 21.4 1.1 64.2 63.1 19.4 21.5 22.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 22.5 23.1 21.5 1.0 64.5 62.2 21.1 22.3 23.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 22.3 23.4 21.9 1.1 64.4 63.2 20.5 22.1 23.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 91 9 100 14.8 14.7 18.4 1.2 62.0 63.0 13.4 14.5 14.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 22.6 22.6 20.2 1.0 60.5 61.7 20.9 22.4 23.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 92 8 100 21.3 21.7 18.2 0.9 58.9 59.5 19.0 21.1 22.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 22.2 22.8 21.3 1.0 64.4 62.4 20.6 22.1 22.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 90 10 100 11.5 12.2 18.3 0.7 55.5 56.3 10.4 11.3 12.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 22.3 22.9 21.2 1.1 62.9 63.0 20.5 21.9 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 22.2 22.7 19.7 1.3 63.7 63.3 20.6 21.9 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 22.5 22.7 20.7 0.9 59.9 59.7 20.6 22.2 23.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 21.8 21.8 19.2 0.5 52.6 54.1 19.8 21.6 23.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 94 6 100 22.6 22.5 19.9 0.3 50.7 52.3 21.3 22.4 23.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 22.9 23.8 21.4 1.5 65.9 64.7 21.0 22.6 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 92 8 100 21.5 22.1 20.9 1.0 60.8 61.6 20.5 21.3 22.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 93 7 100 23.2 23.5 19.9 0.6 54.9 56.2 20.9 23.0 23.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 21.7 22.3 21.1 1.1 64.3 62.7 19.9 21.5 22.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 91 9 100 21.6 22.1 18.9 1.1 60.8 60.7 20.2 21.5 22.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 22.1 23.5 21.8 1.1 65.5 63.1 20.6 21.8 23.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 91 9 100 18.1 18.0 16.4 0.3 50.3 51.3 16.0 18.0 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 22.2 23.3 21.8 1.3 63.8 63.9 20.8 22.0 23.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 49 51 100 23.2 23.1 21.5 1.3 66.1 64.7 21.0 22.0 23.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 46 54 100 23.1 23.7 22.1 1.3 66.9 64.4 20.5 22.0 23.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 22.5 23.4 21.2 1.4 64.2 63.8 20.5 22.3 23.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 93 7 100 21.6 21.7 20.2 0.9 59.4 60.5 20.7 21.4 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 93 7 100 22.1 21.5 17.9 -0.3 44.9 46.2 20.8 21.9 23.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 90 10 100 22.2 22.5 20.7 0.9 61.8 61.3 20.7 22.0 22.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 22.1 22.4 19.7 1.2 63.4 63.7 20.3 21.9 22.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 90 10 100 17.0 17.1 18.0 0.8 56.0 56.7 15.4 16.8 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 22.1 23.0 21.5 0.9 64.3 62.1 20.8 21.8 23.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------