***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 8.5 9.3 11.7 1.8 81.7 77.5 7.3 7.8 8.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 8.8 9.5 11.1 1.6 80.7 76.4 6.9 7.7 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 10.8 11.2 11.6 1.6 81.5 77.3 9.1 10.0 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 5.7 6.2 8.5 1.3 74.5 72.1 4.4 4.8 5.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 8.3 8.7 9.3 1.5 78.2 75.6 6.2 7.2 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 7.2 7.5 7.0 1.1 72.4 70.2 5.8 6.6 7.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 8.8 9.4 11.1 1.6 79.6 76.3 7.0 7.9 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 2.8 3.3 7.1 1.1 71.6 69.9 1.8 2.1 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 9.1 9.5 9.4 1.4 75.9 75.2 7.4 8.0 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 8.7 9.0 7.9 1.2 74.0 72.8 6.9 7.7 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 8.2 8.4 8.6 1.2 73.1 71.3 6.5 7.5 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 44 56 100 7.2 7.4 7.8 1.1 72.0 70.6 5.8 6.6 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 7.8 7.8 7.4 1.0 69.5 68.2 6.4 7.0 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 8.9 9.2 9.2 1.4 77.8 74.8 7.6 8.2 8.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 8.6 8.8 9.7 1.1 74.1 70.7 7.6 8.2 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 8.9 9.3 8.0 1.2 71.4 70.2 7.6 8.2 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 8.6 8.9 10.7 1.5 78.8 75.4 6.9 8.0 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 7.5 7.7 7.2 1.2 72.8 71.9 5.9 6.8 7.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 8.6 9.2 11.1 1.6 81.2 76.3 7.0 7.8 8.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 4.1 4.1 5.7 1.1 69.4 68.2 2.5 3.7 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 8.8 9.1 10.8 1.6 79.5 77.3 6.7 7.5 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 8.1 8.5 10.7 1.5 78.4 75.5 6.2 7.1 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 8.2 8.8 11.0 1.5 80.6 75.7 6.9 7.4 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 8.0 8.3 9.1 1.3 76.6 74.9 7.1 7.4 8.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 9.2 9.9 10.6 1.7 80.3 77.0 7.2 8.1 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 7.7 7.9 7.2 1.0 71.7 68.6 6.7 7.3 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 9.5 10.1 11.2 1.8 82.4 77.7 7.1 8.1 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 7.2 7.2 8.6 1.2 74.0 70.7 6.1 6.8 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 6.5 6.6 6.6 1.0 69.9 69.2 5.0 5.6 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 9.1 9.7 11.3 1.7 80.7 76.5 7.0 8.1 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------