***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 4.4 5.6 8.7 0.3 51.5 52.1 5.1 5.5 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 3.8 5.3 8.2 0.2 50.4 51.0 4.4 5.3 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 6.1 7.3 8.7 0.2 50.4 51.3 6.3 7.3 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 3.0 2.3 5.9 0.2 49.9 50.6 1.1 2.3 4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.2 4.8 6.2 0.1 46.8 49.2 4.2 5.2 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.4 4.6 4.5 0.0 46.5 49.0 3.9 4.8 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 4.4 5.5 8.1 0.1 50.6 50.6 4.6 5.5 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 -0.5 0.4 4.6 0.0 43.6 47.8 -0.6 1.6 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 5.0 5.9 6.5 0.0 45.8 48.8 4.6 6.3 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.7 5.8 5.2 0.0 43.7 48.0 4.7 6.1 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 4.3 5.7 5.6 -0.1 46.1 48.3 4.5 5.8 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.3 4.8 5.0 -0.1 44.8 48.4 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 3.5 5.3 4.6 -0.1 44.5 48.5 4.7 5.5 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 4.6 5.6 6.5 0.1 45.5 49.7 4.9 6.0 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.3 4.9 6.8 0.2 51.4 50.7 4.6 4.9 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 5.1 6.3 5.1 -0.1 45.6 48.5 5.8 6.4 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 4.2 5.5 7.9 0.1 49.9 50.5 4.4 5.5 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 3.0 4.6 4.5 -0.1 41.8 47.6 3.8 5.0 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 4.4 5.7 8.2 0.2 50.1 51.0 4.4 5.7 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 0.1 2.0 3.0 -0.2 41.1 46.4 1.0 2.2 3.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.5 5.7 7.9 0.2 48.5 50.7 4.9 5.7 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 3.8 5.4 7.8 0.1 50.1 50.7 4.1 5.4 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.3 5.3 8.1 0.2 49.0 50.6 4.4 5.3 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 3.9 5.0 6.1 0.0 44.8 48.9 4.3 5.2 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.1 5.9 7.5 0.3 49.3 52.2 5.3 5.9 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.9 5.4 4.5 -0.2 42.5 48.3 4.8 5.5 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 4.8 6.5 8.1 0.2 49.6 51.5 5.3 6.5 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.3 5.9 0.1 49.7 50.0 3.6 4.3 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 2.2 2.9 4.1 -0.1 41.1 47.1 2.0 3.7 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 4.4 5.8 8.4 0.2 51.0 51.3 4.5 5.8 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------