***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 10.7 11.8 13.9 3.6 87.1 84.1 7.9 8.6 9.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 10.6 11.4 13.4 3.5 88.8 83.8 7.8 9.4 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 12.3 13.1 13.8 3.3 87.1 84.2 10.1 11.6 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 8.1 9.0 10.3 2.6 80.0 78.4 5.4 6.7 7.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 10.2 11.2 11.5 3.0 84.0 82.1 6.2 8.5 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 8.9 10.0 8.9 2.6 81.5 78.4 5.6 6.9 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 10.4 11.3 13.4 3.4 88.0 83.3 8.0 9.2 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 4.8 5.6 9.0 2.6 82.9 79.2 3.1 3.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 10.9 11.8 11.6 3.1 86.4 83.2 8.1 9.0 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 10.1 11.0 9.9 2.9 85.6 81.5 7.6 8.8 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 9.6 10.6 10.6 2.6 81.9 79.5 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 8.7 9.3 9.8 2.6 81.1 78.7 5.8 6.7 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 9.5 10.2 9.3 2.3 78.1 75.5 6.0 7.4 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 10.2 10.9 11.3 2.9 84.7 81.2 8.3 9.3 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 10.7 11.3 11.5 2.3 78.4 77.3 8.1 9.3 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 10.8 11.6 9.9 2.5 79.1 77.2 7.7 9.3 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 10.7 11.1 13.0 3.3 88.2 82.7 8.4 9.2 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 8.9 9.8 9.2 2.8 82.2 79.6 6.4 7.7 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 10.3 11.3 13.4 3.4 88.5 83.9 8.0 9.3 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 5.7 6.8 7.7 2.7 80.1 77.5 2.4 3.7 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 10.3 11.3 12.9 3.3 87.0 84.1 7.2 8.2 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 9.6 10.4 13.0 3.2 87.3 82.0 7.2 8.6 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 9.9 10.2 13.2 3.2 87.6 83.4 7.7 9.1 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 9.4 10.1 11.2 2.9 84.6 81.7 7.3 8.5 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 10.7 11.7 12.9 3.4 85.5 83.7 7.6 9.4 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 9.9 10.6 9.0 2.4 78.8 75.2 6.5 7.8 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 11.3 12.3 13.5 3.6 86.8 83.9 7.5 9.5 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 9.1 9.6 10.4 2.4 77.7 76.7 6.5 7.5 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 8.3 9.1 8.6 2.6 81.8 78.7 6.6 7.4 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 11.2 11.8 13.6 3.5 88.3 84.1 7.9 9.7 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------