***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2020.-04.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 11.2 11.4 12.9 1.7 75.3 74.1 8.6 9.6 11.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 11.6 12.0 12.2 1.4 72.3 71.0 8.5 10.1 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 13.5 13.9 12.8 1.4 72.0 71.9 10.4 12.3 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 93 7 100 7.7 8.4 9.5 0.8 60.8 61.5 5.9 7.5 8.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 10.6 10.7 11.0 1.3 71.3 70.8 7.4 8.6 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 8.2 8.7 7.9 0.7 63.1 62.1 6.8 8.0 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 11.5 11.9 12.4 1.5 73.8 72.2 8.4 9.9 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 90 10 100 4.0 4.3 7.9 0.5 59.8 59.0 2.9 3.8 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 11.5 11.3 10.7 1.0 69.3 68.1 8.8 10.0 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 9.9 10.4 8.8 0.7 63.8 62.6 8.2 9.7 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 9.4 10.5 10.1 0.7 64.5 63.2 8.1 9.1 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 8.3 8.8 9.1 0.7 64.2 62.8 6.8 8.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 90 10 100 9.1 9.3 9.0 0.7 64.8 63.0 7.7 8.9 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 11.2 11.6 10.3 1.0 70.3 68.3 8.9 10.1 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 10.3 11.0 11.2 0.6 59.3 60.4 8.7 10.1 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 10.2 11.3 9.6 0.9 65.3 64.8 8.9 9.9 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 11.5 11.6 11.8 1.3 71.9 69.6 8.1 10.2 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 46 54 100 9.7 9.6 8.2 0.7 64.6 63.1 7.0 8.7 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 11.4 11.3 12.2 1.3 70.8 69.9 8.4 9.5 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 5.0 5.3 6.7 0.7 63.6 61.8 3.8 4.8 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 11.3 11.7 12.1 1.4 74.7 72.9 8.5 9.3 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 10.3 10.7 12.0 1.2 70.5 68.9 8.1 8.9 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 10.4 10.9 12.0 1.0 68.7 67.1 8.0 9.1 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 10.6 10.5 10.3 0.9 66.8 66.2 8.5 9.6 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 11.6 12.1 12.2 1.6 75.2 72.5 8.4 9.8 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 8.9 9.7 8.6 0.8 65.3 63.8 7.9 8.8 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 12.5 13.2 12.8 1.9 78.0 75.2 7.9 10.4 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 8.3 9.0 9.9 0.8 61.5 61.9 7.1 8.1 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 8.0 8.3 7.3 0.4 59.2 58.2 6.5 7.7 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 12.1 12.5 12.6 1.4 72.6 71.4 8.9 10.0 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------