***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2015.-25.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 43.5 54.1 41.6 123.6 65.8 60.6 14.5 37.3 54.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 43.4 52.4 38.8 112.7 65.0 56.1 15.1 38.0 53.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 42.0 55.4 39.6 111.1 60.7 56.7 21.8 33.4 75.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 90.4 92.3 57.8 136.2 71.8 65.3 33.1 63.2 85.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 50.2 56.2 51.1 123.6 66.3 61.5 33.2 43.6 55.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 57.0 62.5 58.3 119.2 65.4 59.3 26.5 49.5 63.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 38.5 48.9 37.7 110.7 67.2 55.0 17.3 30.6 47.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 65.4 71.2 54.2 114.0 63.2 59.1 45.3 59.0 73.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 47.5 51.0 49.5 123.1 66.2 61.4 27.9 39.4 50.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 48.7 57.6 53.8 116.0 62.6 59.4 34.6 42.3 59.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 52.3 59.0 46.2 118.6 65.5 59.5 28.4 44.9 60.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 57.9 57.5 47.5 119.8 67.1 60.8 25.9 45.3 57.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 65.4 63.5 54.2 124.4 67.9 61.4 26.4 41.8 62.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 65.7 80.7 48.3 103.8 59.8 54.8 41.6 56.4 94.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 63.8 70.8 57.4 129.9 71.2 62.3 24.1 37.6 64.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 57.0 58.3 52.3 127.3 70.4 63.3 25.1 37.3 51.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 33.3 44.6 37.6 111.0 66.0 53.1 14.9 26.9 44.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 55.4 56.1 57.7 111.0 58.8 57.3 34.1 48.8 57.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 49.9 57.6 38.3 110.0 62.7 55.6 20.0 41.3 65.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 55.5 67.4 73.5 115.3 62.3 59.4 39.7 48.3 75.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 46.3 56.2 46.4 129.7 67.9 63.2 26.6 38.3 55.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 23.7 47.9 38.7 109.4 63.2 52.7 22.2 34.5 53.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 44.7 55.6 37.3 103.2 59.6 53.7 25.5 37.3 67.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 55.6 48.6 47.8 105.9 57.8 55.1 28.3 44.3 80.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 42.1 65.7 50.5 124.0 66.0 60.8 19.9 34.1 65.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 72.6 68.6 55.2 132.7 72.5 64.7 31.7 44.9 55.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 37.6 55.8 47.3 123.0 66.6 60.5 16.0 29.4 53.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 61.4 58.7 56.4 129.5 69.6 62.8 23.5 47.3 57.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 73.3 78.4 62.7 113.1 60.9 58.2 46.6 64.1 84.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 39.6 52.9 39.2 114.1 63.8 57.5 20.1 32.0 61.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------