***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2015.-25.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 10.9 14.7 9.5 107.1 63.5 51.4 2.6 6.7 16.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.8 6.6 8.1 86.0 58.0 45.7 0.1 3.8 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.8 12.6 9.1 95.2 58.1 47.5 2.0 7.3 16.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.4 19.1 13.4 111.0 66.8 51.0 2.7 8.1 18.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.9 12.6 12.2 106.8 67.0 50.7 3.2 7.6 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.2 7.5 12.7 91.7 57.0 49.5 2.5 5.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.9 6.0 8.2 87.9 59.6 46.9 1.6 4.1 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.9 12.6 11.9 86.3 55.1 46.6 5.1 10.6 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.5 11.8 107.0 64.1 49.6 4.1 7.8 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.4 9.2 12.2 94.7 58.4 47.0 4.6 7.6 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.8 7.9 10.5 93.1 59.9 47.8 2.5 6.9 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.5 10.4 86.5 58.1 48.3 2.6 6.5 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.8 10.1 11.0 86.0 55.3 48.3 2.9 7.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.2 11.6 10.4 84.6 52.9 44.4 5.6 10.3 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.4 10.2 14.2 111.8 68.6 50.6 1.1 5.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.5 10.7 90.2 59.0 48.6 3.2 5.4 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 0.9 3.4 7.7 81.3 57.0 45.5 1.1 2.1 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.3 10.1 13.0 92.4 58.1 46.6 5.0 6.8 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 2.3 12.0 8.0 85.0 57.2 45.1 2.7 4.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.0 9.1 15.2 84.1 53.5 44.9 4.3 8.0 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.4 14.9 10.8 110.2 64.8 50.8 2.2 8.5 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.8 6.6 7.6 77.2 54.3 44.3 0.8 5.8 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.9 14.3 8.3 85.4 58.4 45.1 2.9 9.8 19.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.4 10.8 11.0 90.9 55.8 46.1 3.4 9.7 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.6 16.1 12.1 112.9 64.7 52.3 1.4 5.0 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.9 11.9 11.0 90.0 60.6 48.8 2.9 9.6 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.9 13.9 10.7 107.9 62.5 51.3 2.3 4.3 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.3 9.9 13.4 106.0 65.2 50.0 1.1 7.0 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 5.0 11.5 13.1 86.9 53.7 45.2 5.8 9.3 15.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 9.3 10.2 8.4 90.3 59.3 47.3 0.9 5.8 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------