***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 1.3 3.8 8.9 105.7 65.8 52.2 0.1 2.8 3.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 1.3 8.6 10.1 114.3 67.6 51.1 0.0 2.8 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.8 6.3 9.0 95.0 62.5 50.0 0.3 5.0 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.5 12.2 10.8 99.2 66.6 54.5 1.6 6.3 11.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 7.8 11.8 10.2 96.2 62.7 53.6 0.6 5.2 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 7.5 14.3 14.8 128.9 69.3 60.9 1.1 4.5 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 0.8 9.6 10.3 120.8 69.8 50.0 0.3 2.0 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 12.2 13.1 12.3 102.9 61.1 54.6 5.9 8.8 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 7.5 8.3 9.8 93.0 61.6 52.4 0.8 6.1 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 11.3 13.5 11.3 94.9 59.9 52.6 4.2 10.0 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 8.3 12.5 9.6 97.9 64.0 53.7 1.3 6.2 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 8.5 13.1 11.0 113.9 67.3 57.5 0.9 6.0 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 10.7 18.1 13.0 128.2 71.5 61.4 1.5 7.9 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.6 11.5 12.1 94.0 57.8 49.8 1.6 9.3 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.5 13.0 11.3 98.7 69.9 54.0 0.5 2.7 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 6.7 11.0 11.2 113.5 68.5 58.5 1.2 4.9 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.9 11.6 11.2 128.9 71.9 51.7 0.4 4.2 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 11.1 14.1 12.8 93.7 60.7 53.0 3.8 9.1 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 1.4 8.9 9.8 107.0 65.6 50.8 0.6 2.9 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 10.4 13.6 17.2 104.7 61.1 55.1 4.6 8.8 13.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.5 8.4 9.1 97.9 64.7 52.8 1.7 5.4 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.1 11.1 11.6 122.8 71.9 52.4 0.2 5.7 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.6 6.0 9.5 97.7 61.3 49.9 0.4 2.7 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 7.6 10.0 10.9 89.1 58.8 50.3 2.5 5.4 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.9 10.8 106.0 64.1 53.2 0.8 3.5 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 10.7 18.5 12.5 120.1 68.8 58.6 1.9 8.5 17.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 1.9 5.9 10.5 110.0 65.1 52.5 1.2 3.8 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.3 14.3 10.9 98.5 69.0 54.3 1.2 4.0 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 15.6 18.1 14.3 96.7 60.6 53.6 8.5 12.6 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 0.8 7.5 9.5 107.4 65.6 50.6 0.4 1.7 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------