***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 2.4 17.0 9.8 123.0 79.4 57.4 1.4 5.4 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.1 18.5 9.3 118.5 75.7 53.5 3.0 9.0 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.5 16.9 8.3 98.0 70.9 51.5 2.3 7.1 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 5.2 20.3 11.1 115.8 73.4 56.4 3.3 11.3 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.6 12.9 10.4 111.3 71.7 53.9 2.4 5.3 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.2 14.3 12.8 103.7 70.7 57.5 2.8 5.9 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 3.9 16.2 9.8 123.3 75.3 54.9 1.9 10.0 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 6.6 15.4 11.5 107.2 70.8 55.9 6.3 10.6 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.4 14.5 10.0 107.3 71.7 55.2 2.3 8.7 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.2 16.2 11.2 106.9 70.6 54.4 3.0 8.6 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 1.9 17.7 9.0 108.8 73.7 52.0 1.6 3.9 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 1.6 16.0 9.1 104.2 73.5 55.2 1.1 3.1 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 16.2 18.2 10.8 106.8 73.2 57.8 1.7 4.9 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.2 19.6 11.5 107.0 71.2 48.7 3.1 8.8 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.7 13.2 11.0 105.1 73.0 54.6 0.9 3.7 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.9 23.5 10.4 112.3 75.6 57.7 1.2 2.7 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.8 14.8 9.4 126.0 77.9 55.5 0.5 7.9 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.0 20.7 14.0 114.6 71.1 52.8 6.4 10.4 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.8 19.9 8.5 107.7 72.7 50.6 2.0 6.6 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 6.3 23.1 20.9 135.8 75.4 57.4 5.5 10.9 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.4 15.4 9.1 110.0 73.1 54.1 3.3 8.9 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.9 18.6 9.2 128.0 73.2 54.0 0.3 8.4 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 2.9 14.2 7.9 95.4 70.6 46.1 2.0 7.3 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 2.8 20.4 10.9 101.7 70.3 50.5 3.4 5.6 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.8 13.8 11.3 117.9 74.0 54.6 4.8 10.5 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.7 17.6 10.2 107.1 69.3 53.8 1.0 5.8 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 1.9 16.4 11.4 125.0 77.2 55.8 2.0 4.4 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 1.3 12.4 10.9 110.2 73.5 57.0 0.4 2.7 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.6 28.5 16.5 123.8 73.5 54.4 7.2 15.9 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.9 12.0 9.2 113.6 73.4 53.7 1.8 9.0 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------