***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2015.-04.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 13.8 16.0 13.4 159.7 75.6 66.1 0.9 7.5 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.3 15.4 11.2 136.4 74.2 59.7 0.9 5.2 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 15.9 20.0 13.2 162.2 77.5 65.5 3.3 7.5 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 31.6 54.4 22.4 229.3 85.9 77.8 6.1 14.5 18.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 19.7 26.5 18.3 183.8 82.7 71.5 5.8 10.4 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 21.8 30.6 18.0 160.4 77.8 69.5 1.8 7.4 22.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.8 13.3 9.4 114.5 69.8 55.0 0.7 5.8 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 25.7 36.6 18.5 166.4 81.0 70.5 6.0 16.3 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 16.3 22.8 17.8 192.7 83.0 72.6 4.7 11.1 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 21.2 26.3 19.1 173.1 82.1 71.3 6.9 14.3 20.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 22.2 29.5 17.0 179.3 81.0 69.8 3.6 12.7 21.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 20.2 33.3 17.1 183.4 83.7 70.2 2.5 6.3 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 17.6 33.9 19.4 184.2 86.0 71.7 1.9 7.3 16.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 13.8 23.6 14.4 135.0 74.2 60.9 7.6 11.0 21.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 19.5 39.7 21.0 218.5 86.6 75.7 1.9 6.1 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 18.0 27.8 20.1 198.3 86.4 75.4 1.4 7.4 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.9 10.7 9.4 112.9 66.1 53.5 0.4 3.8 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 16.1 20.1 17.9 149.3 77.0 65.9 5.3 10.5 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 8.5 14.2 11.9 144.7 74.9 61.2 3.2 7.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 18.4 22.9 20.2 145.5 76.0 66.0 5.5 11.5 15.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 17.3 26.8 17.5 205.2 82.8 74.7 4.2 10.3 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.5 11.5 10.4 116.0 67.0 53.7 0.9 5.5 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 10.0 14.1 11.5 137.9 73.1 59.7 4.3 8.0 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 12.8 22.1 15.0 148.6 77.1 64.7 3.9 10.6 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 21.7 28.7 16.3 159.2 76.5 68.7 1.6 9.1 22.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 18.9 44.2 21.6 225.7 91.3 75.6 1.4 5.1 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 13.6 18.1 14.7 149.1 74.5 66.9 1.5 5.9 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 25.1 47.1 21.1 214.1 86.6 76.2 4.4 9.8 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 26.2 32.6 18.8 154.6 79.3 67.5 8.0 15.3 29.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 7.1 13.8 12.1 149.4 76.5 64.6 1.3 5.4 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------