***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2015.-25.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 18.0 17.8 17.2 -1.4 28.4 31.7 18.0 19.2 19.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 18.1 18.1 17.3 -1.4 29.9 32.0 18.3 19.3 19.7 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 18.2 18.2 17.2 -1.6 27.6 30.1 18.5 19.4 20.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 11.2 11.2 14.7 -1.9 23.1 26.1 11.6 12.2 13.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 18.3 17.9 15.3 -1.8 25.0 27.5 18.6 19.6 20.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 17.8 17.5 14.0 -1.7 24.6 29.5 17.8 18.7 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 17.8 18.0 17.2 -1.4 28.5 32.1 18.2 19.0 19.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 8.9 8.7 14.1 -1.7 24.0 27.7 9.1 10.0 10.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 18.6 18.1 16.0 -1.7 26.6 29.0 18.6 19.8 20.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 18.3 17.7 14.8 -1.7 25.4 27.7 18.1 19.6 20.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 18.3 18.0 15.1 -1.8 25.3 28.0 18.4 19.4 20.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 18.1 17.6 14.9 -1.8 23.4 27.7 18.0 19.3 20.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 18.8 18.3 14.7 -1.9 22.7 27.9 18.8 20.2 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 18.7 18.3 15.8 -1.8 23.8 26.9 18.9 20.1 20.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 17.7 17.4 15.4 -1.9 23.0 26.2 17.9 18.6 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 19.2 18.7 14.9 -1.8 24.6 27.8 19.2 20.2 21.1 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 17.7 17.4 16.6 -1.7 23.8 27.6 17.8 18.8 19.2 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 17.6 17.1 14.2 -1.8 24.5 26.8 17.4 18.9 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 18.0 18.2 17.4 -1.4 29.6 31.8 18.3 19.2 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 14.4 14.2 12.4 -1.7 22.1 27.5 14.7 15.5 16.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 18.3 17.8 16.6 -1.7 25.9 28.8 18.2 19.6 20.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 18.3 18.1 16.6 -1.7 21.9 26.7 18.6 19.3 19.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 18.3 18.5 17.2 -1.4 28.9 31.1 18.8 19.3 20.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 18.4 17.8 15.7 -1.8 24.5 27.1 18.7 20.0 20.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 17.9 17.8 15.6 -1.6 25.9 29.4 17.9 18.9 19.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 18.4 18.2 14.5 -1.9 22.9 26.9 18.6 19.5 20.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 18.2 18.2 16.4 -1.4 28.2 31.7 18.3 19.3 19.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 17.7 17.4 15.1 -2.0 23.0 25.7 17.8 18.7 19.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 13.5 13.3 13.5 -1.8 23.4 27.1 13.7 14.9 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 17.9 18.0 17.4 -1.4 30.9 32.7 18.2 19.3 19.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------