***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2015.-25.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 16.7 16.4 15.8 -0.1 50.3 50.1 13.7 16.3 17.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 16.2 15.7 15.8 0.0 51.5 50.8 14.2 15.7 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 17.0 16.6 15.8 -0.1 50.2 50.3 15.0 16.6 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 10.0 8.7 13.6 -0.2 43.5 50.3 7.8 9.6 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 17.3 16.5 14.1 -0.1 48.2 50.3 15.6 16.9 18.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 16.7 16.2 13.1 0.1 46.2 50.8 14.9 16.2 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 16.2 15.8 15.7 -0.1 51.6 50.3 13.9 15.8 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 8.8 8.3 13.2 0.2 49.1 51.8 7.3 8.4 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 17.5 16.9 14.7 0.0 49.7 50.4 15.5 17.0 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 16.9 16.2 13.8 0.1 49.4 51.1 14.5 16.4 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 17.6 16.7 14.0 0.0 47.8 51.3 15.2 17.1 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 16.9 15.9 14.0 0.1 47.1 51.0 15.3 16.2 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 17.8 16.4 13.6 -0.1 44.2 49.2 15.9 17.3 19.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 17.2 16.8 14.8 0.0 50.9 50.2 15.3 16.7 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 15.8 15.4 13.8 -0.1 46.3 51.6 14.0 15.6 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 18.4 17.6 13.8 -0.1 44.3 50.0 16.4 17.9 20.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 15.7 15.6 15.3 -0.3 51.1 48.7 14.0 15.3 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 16.0 15.4 13.5 0.0 49.6 50.5 13.5 15.4 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 16.6 16.3 16.0 0.0 51.9 51.0 14.2 16.1 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.4 13.9 11.7 0.1 49.5 50.8 12.9 13.9 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 17.2 16.8 15.3 -0.1 49.1 49.9 15.0 16.8 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.0 15.3 -0.2 52.3 48.9 14.5 15.8 17.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 16.5 16.2 15.9 0.0 52.4 50.9 15.0 16.0 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 17.2 16.7 14.8 0.0 50.1 50.2 16.2 16.7 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 16.7 16.4 14.2 -0.1 49.9 50.3 13.8 16.4 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 17.3 16.4 13.5 -0.2 43.3 48.0 16.0 16.7 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 17.0 16.6 15.0 -0.1 51.2 50.4 14.4 16.6 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 16.2 15.6 13.9 -0.2 44.1 50.5 14.4 15.8 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.5 12.9 12.8 0.1 50.0 50.6 10.9 12.9 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 16.2 15.9 16.0 0.0 51.3 50.9 14.1 15.8 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------