***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 18.9 17.0 17.3 -0.7 45.1 45.2 16.2 18.0 20.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 19.1 17.1 17.3 -0.8 44.8 44.8 16.4 18.4 19.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.9 17.8 17.4 -0.7 45.2 45.2 16.7 18.1 20.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 9.1 11.0 15.2 -0.9 44.5 42.8 9.6 11.3 12.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 18.9 17.7 15.7 -0.8 46.6 44.3 16.9 18.0 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 18.0 16.8 14.5 -0.8 47.0 44.5 16.0 17.0 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 18.5 16.7 17.1 -0.8 43.9 44.2 16.0 17.7 19.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 9.6 8.7 14.7 -0.5 49.2 45.8 7.1 8.8 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 19.1 18.1 16.3 -0.7 49.2 45.1 16.6 18.4 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 16.2 17.8 15.3 -0.7 48.2 45.1 16.5 18.0 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 18.8 17.7 15.6 -0.7 49.2 44.9 16.4 18.0 19.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 18.3 17.8 15.5 -0.6 50.5 45.4 16.1 17.6 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 18.7 17.6 15.1 -0.9 46.8 43.9 16.7 17.9 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 16.9 18.3 16.1 -0.8 45.7 44.1 17.2 19.1 20.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 15.7 17.4 15.3 -1.0 43.4 42.2 16.2 17.6 18.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 19.6 18.5 15.3 -0.8 47.8 44.0 16.9 18.8 19.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 18.4 16.4 16.6 -1.1 38.8 41.9 16.2 17.4 19.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 18.2 16.7 14.9 -0.7 46.2 44.9 16.0 17.7 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 18.9 17.4 17.4 -0.7 45.7 45.4 16.5 18.3 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 12.6 13.8 13.1 -0.5 45.3 45.7 12.4 14.7 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 19.1 18.1 16.9 -0.7 47.2 45.0 16.6 18.4 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 19.2 17.3 16.6 -1.1 40.6 42.4 16.8 18.4 19.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 19.1 17.7 17.4 -0.7 45.7 45.7 16.9 18.5 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 19.3 18.0 16.2 -0.7 46.4 44.7 16.6 18.8 20.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 18.1 17.1 15.7 -0.8 43.2 44.4 16.3 17.4 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 18.4 17.2 15.0 -0.9 46.3 43.6 16.8 17.5 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 18.9 16.8 16.5 -0.7 44.4 44.9 16.5 18.0 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 16.0 17.6 15.4 -1.0 44.8 42.6 16.5 17.8 18.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 14.5 13.1 14.2 -0.6 45.0 45.1 11.6 13.8 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 18.6 16.8 17.5 -0.7 45.7 45.4 16.1 17.9 19.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------