***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 21.2 20.4 18.3 -1.2 35.8 39.6 20.3 20.7 21.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 21.5 20.5 18.4 -1.2 40.2 40.6 20.2 20.9 21.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 21.6 20.6 18.3 -1.2 37.2 39.8 20.2 21.1 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 11.3 11.8 16.1 -1.6 31.2 35.7 11.8 13.4 16.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 19.2 19.9 16.5 -1.4 35.9 37.8 19.7 21.5 22.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 21.5 19.4 15.3 -1.1 40.4 40.7 18.9 20.7 22.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 21.2 20.0 18.3 -1.2 39.3 40.3 19.6 20.6 21.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 12.1 10.1 15.5 -1.1 39.6 40.5 9.5 11.5 13.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 19.2 20.3 17.1 -1.3 37.9 39.3 20.1 21.2 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 18.9 20.3 16.1 -1.2 39.2 39.9 19.7 20.9 22.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 22.2 20.3 16.4 -1.2 37.4 39.4 19.8 21.8 22.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 21.6 20.0 16.3 -1.1 38.3 39.8 19.2 21.0 22.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 22.3 20.6 15.9 -1.3 35.9 38.6 20.5 21.7 23.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 19.1 20.1 17.0 -1.3 34.5 39.6 19.9 21.4 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 18.5 18.5 16.3 -1.7 32.7 34.8 18.5 20.4 21.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 20.4 21.0 16.1 -1.4 36.3 38.3 20.8 22.5 23.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 18.5 19.9 17.7 -1.6 34.4 37.4 19.7 20.2 21.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 18.3 19.3 15.6 -1.2 40.4 39.9 18.9 20.0 21.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 21.4 20.3 18.5 -1.2 39.8 40.7 20.1 20.8 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 18.2 16.1 13.8 -1.0 40.4 40.5 14.8 17.8 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 19.3 20.1 17.7 -1.3 36.5 38.9 19.7 21.0 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 19.3 19.9 17.7 -1.6 33.5 36.8 19.9 20.8 22.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 19.5 20.5 18.3 -1.2 37.5 40.8 20.2 21.1 22.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 19.0 19.6 17.0 -1.2 37.7 39.7 19.4 21.2 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 21.2 19.8 16.6 -1.4 35.8 37.8 19.5 20.7 21.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 21.8 20.2 15.8 -1.4 36.7 37.6 20.0 21.2 22.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 21.4 20.6 17.5 -1.3 37.0 39.3 20.4 21.0 21.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 18.0 17.8 16.3 -1.7 32.2 35.5 18.1 20.4 22.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 14.4 15.5 14.9 -1.1 40.9 40.3 14.4 16.5 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 21.3 20.5 18.5 -1.1 39.6 41.0 19.9 20.8 21.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------