***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2015.-04.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 90 10 0 100 17.8 17.4 17.3 -3.8 16.4 17.6 19.4 21.5 22.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 88 12 0 100 18.7 18.4 17.6 -3.6 16.5 19.2 21.1 22.3 23.2 30 Becej 27400G00 93 7 0 100 19.1 18.5 17.1 -4.2 13.8 15.5 20.5 22.1 23.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 99 1 0 100 11.4 8.7 14.0 -4.9 7.6 10.7 13.4 14.5 14.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 18.8 17.6 14.9 -4.9 9.5 11.4 20.9 22.4 23.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 18.0 15.9 13.1 -4.9 7.9 11.9 19.0 21.1 22.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 87 13 0 100 18.5 18.3 17.6 -3.5 17.9 20.1 20.6 22.1 22.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 100 0 0 100 8.7 5.2 12.7 -5.4 6.4 10.1 10.4 11.3 12.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 98 2 0 100 18.6 18.4 15.9 -4.7 10.3 12.3 20.5 21.9 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 99 1 0 100 18.5 17.0 13.9 -5.2 8.2 10.7 20.6 21.9 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 18.7 17.5 14.5 -5.2 6.7 10.5 20.6 22.2 23.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 18.7 15.7 13.7 -5.3 6.1 10.3 19.8 21.6 23.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 18.8 17.1 14.3 -5.1 7.1 11.8 21.3 22.4 23.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 99 1 0 100 19.1 18.3 15.3 -4.9 10.2 11.1 21.0 22.6 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 96 4 0 100 19.0 16.5 16.1 -4.7 7.4 10.7 20.5 21.3 22.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 19.9 17.6 14.5 -5.1 6.4 11.2 20.9 23.0 23.8 30 Nis 06700G01 90 10 0 100 18.4 17.7 16.9 -3.9 14.4 16.9 19.9 21.5 22.4 30 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 18.3 16.0 12.9 -5.4 8.3 9.8 20.2 21.5 22.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 89 11 0 100 18.6 18.0 17.5 -3.7 15.1 18.1 20.6 21.8 23.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 99 1 0 100 14.9 10.9 11.0 -5.4 6.2 9.6 16.0 18.0 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 98 2 0 100 18.7 17.8 16.6 -4.6 10.8 13.1 20.8 22.0 23.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 91 9 0 100 19.2 18.2 16.9 -4.0 13.1 15.8 21.0 22.0 23.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 91 9 0 100 19.2 18.8 17.1 -4.0 13.5 16.4 20.5 22.0 23.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 98 2 0 100 18.9 17.9 15.1 -5.1 10.0 11.1 20.5 22.3 23.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 93 7 0 100 18.0 17.2 15.8 -4.2 13.3 15.4 20.7 21.4 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 97 3 0 100 18.7 16.7 13.5 -5.1 7.1 11.8 20.8 21.9 23.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 91 9 0 100 18.2 18.0 16.8 -3.7 16.8 18.2 20.7 22.0 22.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 99 1 0 100 18.2 16.5 14.9 -5.0 6.1 9.7 20.3 21.9 22.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 14.2 10.7 12.1 -5.5 7.1 9.5 15.4 16.8 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 89 11 0 100 18.5 18.3 17.7 -3.6 16.8 19.6 20.8 21.8 23.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------