***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2015.-25.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.7 9.7 -0.5 42.8 42.2 7.3 7.8 8.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 6.9 7.1 9.3 -0.6 40.2 40.4 6.9 7.7 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.3 9.5 9.5 -0.5 41.8 41.4 9.1 10.0 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 5.1 4.5 7.3 -0.5 41.6 42.0 4.4 4.8 5.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 7.5 6.6 7.3 -0.4 40.9 43.6 6.2 7.2 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 6.8 6.5 5.9 -0.1 44.8 46.9 5.8 6.6 7.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 8.2 7.4 9.3 -0.6 40.7 40.3 7.0 7.9 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 2.4 2.0 6.0 -0.2 41.8 46.0 1.8 2.1 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.4 7.6 7.9 -0.2 44.0 46.4 7.4 8.0 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.2 6.5 -0.3 42.1 45.4 6.9 7.7 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 7.7 7.3 7.1 -0.2 44.4 45.8 6.5 7.5 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 6.8 6.5 6.8 -0.2 44.7 46.7 5.8 6.6 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 7.3 6.9 6.5 -0.2 46.7 46.8 6.4 7.0 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 7.5 7.7 7.7 -0.6 37.9 38.9 7.6 8.2 8.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 8.3 8.1 8.3 -0.3 44.6 45.5 7.6 8.2 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 8.4 7.8 6.8 -0.2 44.2 45.5 7.6 8.2 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 7.1 7.0 8.8 -0.7 35.0 38.2 6.9 8.0 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.5 6.0 -0.4 40.2 43.3 5.9 6.8 7.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.4 9.3 -0.5 40.5 40.7 7.0 7.8 8.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 2.3 3.0 4.4 -0.4 40.4 43.3 2.5 3.7 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.9 7.1 9.0 -0.4 41.3 43.1 6.7 7.5 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 6.3 6.2 8.8 -0.8 32.3 36.4 6.2 7.1 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.7 7.1 9.1 -0.5 40.4 40.8 6.9 7.4 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 7.6 7.2 7.7 -0.5 40.3 42.1 7.1 7.4 8.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 8.4 7.7 8.4 -0.5 40.7 42.6 7.2 8.1 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 7.4 7.1 6.4 -0.3 41.8 44.7 6.7 7.3 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.5 7.6 9.0 -0.5 42.7 42.9 7.1 8.1 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 7.0 6.6 7.5 -0.4 42.5 42.8 6.1 6.8 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.2 5.5 -0.4 40.2 43.3 5.0 5.6 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 8.4 7.8 9.6 -0.5 42.2 41.2 7.0 8.1 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------