***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2015.-25.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 4.5 5.4 8.2 -0.1 47.7 50.3 5.1 5.5 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.0 5.2 7.9 -0.2 48.8 49.4 4.4 5.3 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 6.2 7.3 8.1 -0.1 50.3 50.8 6.3 7.3 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 0.9 3.1 6.0 0.1 55.4 52.9 1.1 2.3 4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.1 5.6 5.8 0.0 52.8 52.4 4.2 5.2 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.2 5.0 4.5 0.2 55.9 53.1 3.9 4.8 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.5 5.5 7.8 -0.2 50.7 49.4 4.6 5.5 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -0.2 1.6 4.6 0.0 50.5 52.3 -0.6 1.6 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 5.0 6.2 6.3 -0.1 48.9 51.6 4.6 6.3 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.8 6.1 5.1 -0.1 49.1 51.3 4.7 6.1 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.3 5.8 5.5 0.0 53.7 52.8 4.5 5.8 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.5 5.1 5.4 0.1 52.2 52.5 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.8 5.6 5.0 0.0 52.9 51.5 4.7 5.5 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.8 5.4 6.3 -0.3 42.0 48.4 4.9 6.0 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.5 5.2 6.6 0.1 56.4 53.9 4.6 4.9 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 5.1 6.6 5.2 0.0 54.4 52.2 5.8 6.4 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 4.1 5.3 7.4 -0.2 46.8 48.7 4.4 5.5 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 3.3 4.7 4.7 -0.1 45.4 50.3 3.8 5.0 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.6 5.5 8.0 -0.1 48.3 49.7 4.4 5.7 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.6 2.0 3.3 0.0 42.5 50.4 1.0 2.2 3.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.5 5.7 7.5 -0.1 49.2 51.7 4.9 5.7 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.9 4.5 7.4 -0.3 45.1 47.7 4.1 5.4 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.3 5.2 7.7 -0.2 46.4 49.9 4.4 5.3 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.0 5.1 6.3 -0.1 45.6 50.3 4.3 5.2 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.1 6.9 0.0 53.0 53.0 5.3 5.9 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.1 5.5 5.2 -0.1 48.1 50.8 4.8 5.5 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 7.1 6.6 7.5 -0.1 51.5 51.5 5.3 6.5 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.3 4.4 6.1 0.1 56.1 52.7 3.6 4.3 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 4.3 3.2 4.2 -0.1 43.5 49.9 2.0 3.7 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.6 5.8 8.1 -0.1 49.4 49.8 4.5 5.8 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------