***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 6.8 5.7 9.4 -0.3 45.7 47.5 4.8 6.2 7.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.8 5.6 9.2 -0.3 45.5 47.0 4.6 6.1 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.0 7.9 9.2 -0.3 45.8 47.0 6.8 8.4 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 4.2 3.0 6.8 -0.4 42.0 45.3 2.7 3.8 5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.0 6.8 -0.3 43.5 46.8 4.0 5.7 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.4 4.3 5.4 0.1 42.5 49.3 3.4 4.7 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.5 5.6 9.2 -0.3 46.2 47.1 5.0 5.8 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 1.8 0.6 5.7 0.1 43.7 49.9 -0.4 1.0 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 7.2 6.5 7.3 -0.2 44.0 47.3 5.9 6.7 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.2 6.5 6.1 -0.1 42.7 48.2 5.1 6.7 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.9 5.6 6.6 0.0 42.3 48.9 4.4 6.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.5 3.9 6.5 0.1 42.1 49.7 3.6 4.9 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.1 4.5 5.9 -0.1 41.1 47.5 3.3 5.4 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 7.4 6.5 7.4 -0.4 44.1 45.4 5.6 6.9 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.4 6.6 7.4 -0.4 39.8 44.9 6.3 7.1 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.3 6.2 6.2 -0.1 41.8 47.8 5.6 6.8 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 5.0 5.5 8.7 -0.5 43.3 45.2 5.4 6.2 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 6.2 5.5 5.7 -0.1 43.1 47.5 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 7.2 5.9 9.2 -0.3 46.1 46.9 4.7 6.7 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.5 0.9 4.3 0.0 44.2 48.6 0.6 1.8 3.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.4 5.7 8.5 -0.2 45.4 47.3 5.2 5.8 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.5 4.9 8.6 -0.6 42.7 43.6 4.4 5.9 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 5.0 5.9 8.8 -0.3 46.3 46.4 5.1 6.3 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.4 5.7 7.3 -0.3 43.5 46.5 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.4 6.7 7.9 -0.3 45.4 47.1 4.7 6.7 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 6.2 5.2 6.2 -0.2 41.4 46.9 4.7 5.8 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.1 5.8 8.7 -0.2 46.4 47.7 4.2 6.5 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.4 4.1 6.9 -0.4 40.5 45.1 3.6 4.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 5.0 4.2 5.2 -0.1 44.9 48.0 3.5 4.5 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.3 6.4 9.4 -0.2 46.2 47.5 4.9 6.9 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------