***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 7.6 8.5 10.1 -0.7 47.5 44.9 7.9 8.6 9.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 7.6 9.3 9.7 -0.7 48.1 44.1 7.8 9.4 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 10.1 11.3 9.9 -0.7 46.5 44.2 10.1 11.6 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.2 6.3 7.7 -0.6 44.5 43.4 5.4 6.7 7.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 6.9 8.1 7.6 -0.5 45.7 45.4 6.2 8.5 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 5.8 6.4 6.3 -0.1 46.1 48.5 5.6 6.9 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 7.8 9.0 9.7 -0.8 47.7 44.0 8.0 9.2 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 2.0 3.5 6.4 -0.1 45.8 48.6 3.1 3.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 8.1 8.9 8.1 -0.5 45.7 46.3 8.1 9.0 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 7.3 8.7 6.8 -0.3 45.4 47.3 7.6 8.8 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 6.9 7.9 7.4 -0.3 46.9 47.2 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 5.7 6.7 7.3 -0.1 47.8 49.3 5.8 6.7 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 6.2 7.3 6.8 -0.1 49.4 49.2 6.0 7.4 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 7.7 9.1 7.9 -0.8 40.6 42.7 8.3 9.3 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 7.9 8.6 8.2 -0.6 43.0 43.4 8.1 9.3 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 7.7 9.1 7.1 -0.3 47.7 47.4 7.7 9.3 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 7.7 9.0 9.1 -0.8 44.6 43.1 8.4 9.2 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 6.0 7.5 6.3 -0.5 43.9 45.7 6.4 7.7 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 7.7 9.1 9.7 -0.7 46.2 44.1 8.0 9.3 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 2.4 3.0 4.8 -0.4 42.3 46.3 2.4 3.7 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 7.1 8.1 9.3 -0.5 46.6 45.6 7.2 8.2 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 7.0 7.5 9.1 -0.9 40.0 41.8 7.2 8.6 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 7.5 8.9 9.4 -0.7 44.1 43.9 7.7 9.1 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 7.3 8.2 8.0 -0.6 44.2 44.6 7.3 8.5 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 8.1 9.1 8.7 -0.6 48.4 44.6 7.6 9.4 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 6.4 7.7 6.9 -0.2 46.0 48.4 6.5 7.8 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 8.0 9.4 9.3 -0.6 48.4 45.2 7.5 9.5 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 6.1 6.9 7.8 -0.6 43.4 43.5 6.5 7.5 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 5.6 6.8 5.8 -0.5 42.1 45.4 6.6 7.4 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 8.2 9.7 9.9 -0.7 48.5 44.2 7.9 9.7 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------