***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2015.-04.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 8.2 8.7 11.0 -1.0 34.0 37.2 8.6 9.6 11.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 7.6 8.5 10.4 -1.1 33.1 35.0 8.5 10.1 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 10.2 10.2 10.8 -1.1 32.2 34.8 10.4 12.3 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 7.9 6.4 8.6 -0.9 38.2 37.7 5.9 7.5 8.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.3 7.6 9.1 -0.8 37.6 39.1 7.4 8.6 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 8.4 7.5 7.2 -0.6 38.6 41.6 6.8 8.0 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 8.3 8.5 10.5 -1.2 33.7 34.3 8.4 9.9 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 4.3 3.1 7.2 -0.8 34.0 36.8 2.9 3.8 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.5 9.8 10.0 -0.2 47.4 47.4 8.8 10.0 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.2 8.8 8.2 -0.6 38.3 40.2 8.2 9.7 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 9.6 8.4 8.8 -0.7 35.9 39.7 8.1 9.1 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 8.5 6.8 8.0 -0.7 35.3 38.8 6.8 8.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 9.2 8.0 8.2 -0.4 41.1 43.2 7.7 8.9 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 8.8 8.6 9.2 -1.0 30.1 32.3 8.9 10.1 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 10.3 10.0 10.9 -0.1 47.2 48.3 8.7 10.1 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 10.4 9.4 8.5 -0.6 36.8 40.5 8.9 9.9 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 8.4 8.1 9.9 -1.2 31.7 33.3 8.1 10.2 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 7.2 7.0 7.3 -0.8 33.7 35.1 7.0 8.7 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 8.0 8.3 10.5 -1.1 32.5 35.0 8.4 9.5 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 3.2 3.5 5.3 -1.0 29.6 32.7 3.8 4.8 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 7.6 8.6 10.8 -0.9 36.1 37.9 8.5 9.3 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 7.3 7.8 10.1 -1.3 30.5 32.0 8.1 8.9 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 7.7 8.0 10.5 -1.0 32.6 34.6 8.0 9.1 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 8.2 8.7 9.2 -0.8 34.2 35.5 8.5 9.6 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 10.3 8.6 10.2 -1.0 35.5 36.8 8.4 9.8 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 9.1 8.0 7.5 -0.8 36.2 39.1 7.9 8.8 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.0 8.2 10.5 -1.0 35.7 37.4 7.9 10.4 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 8.5 7.4 9.3 -0.7 39.5 40.3 7.1 8.1 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.2 6.5 6.7 -0.8 33.0 35.1 6.5 7.7 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 8.2 8.9 10.8 -1.1 33.6 35.6 8.9 10.0 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------