***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-23.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 51.6 52.0 44.7 106.0 58.5 51.7 18.4 44.9 53.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 41.7 42.5 39.9 100.5 59.8 48.2 16.9 35.0 53.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 49.9 55.3 43.8 102.9 58.7 50.9 21.5 39.0 71.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 75.1 67.2 44.4 92.7 50.3 45.8 37.8 65.9 84.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 53.2 45.1 45.1 95.9 48.1 47.0 30.9 47.3 63.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 30.6 44.7 43.7 84.1 40.0 40.2 30.9 49.4 64.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 20.2 47.5 40.7 102.1 62.6 49.0 17.7 31.4 49.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 67.3 60.3 48.8 93.6 47.3 46.3 45.8 62.1 79.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 52.3 45.9 46.4 96.9 49.8 47.9 28.9 46.4 56.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 56.7 51.3 50.7 96.4 49.0 47.9 36.7 51.6 64.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 48.7 40.3 44.6 94.6 47.1 46.3 31.9 42.7 65.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 48.5 41.3 42.1 89.7 45.4 43.6 33.2 44.5 57.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 52.2 39.3 45.2 89.1 44.8 43.0 30.1 43.5 68.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 46.4 73.0 52.7 97.8 55.0 48.9 42.3 59.8 88.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 54.5 42.4 38.3 85.1 47.3 43.3 28.6 46.4 63.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 47.8 39.7 43.6 91.1 46.1 44.1 26.9 40.5 56.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 17.0 39.9 39.5 99.2 58.0 47.3 15.0 27.3 43.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 59.9 52.8 54.4 98.1 51.0 49.8 41.2 52.7 58.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 48.3 50.8 40.5 99.6 60.1 48.5 24.9 37.6 63.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 60.5 55.7 61.4 97.0 51.5 49.4 41.6 51.4 77.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 47.7 39.0 44.9 98.8 50.9 49.6 30.1 38.2 57.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 24.3 42.6 41.9 99.7 58.4 48.5 20.4 33.8 46.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 27.2 54.1 42.5 99.7 59.4 49.6 28.0 38.5 65.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 57.1 52.3 49.7 100.0 56.1 50.6 31.6 46.0 72.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 53.2 45.5 49.0 103.5 54.2 51.9 23.0 44.1 68.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 31.9 39.5 41.3 82.6 39.1 39.3 30.2 51.3 55.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 49.3 46.4 47.5 106.3 58.6 52.2 23.3 42.0 53.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 50.7 44.3 41.1 89.8 48.2 44.2 31.1 45.8 57.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 55.0 71.6 57.4 99.0 53.7 50.6 57.4 68.9 79.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 42.8 43.9 41.2 102.1 60.5 49.3 20.0 34.5 60.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------