***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.10.2016.-23.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.2 17.3 9.7 109.0 65.5 47.4 2.2 9.0 17.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 1.4 7.1 8.6 107.2 59.8 47.4 0.5 3.7 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 4.6 14.4 9.3 106.2 64.2 48.2 1.0 10.8 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 2.7 18.8 10.0 104.8 69.7 50.7 3.0 7.0 18.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 2.9 18.1 9.2 97.4 69.5 49.5 2.5 8.2 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 1.4 4.9 8.7 81.0 58.0 44.4 0.8 3.8 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 1.9 7.7 9.2 114.2 65.8 49.5 1.2 4.1 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 4.8 17.7 9.5 97.3 66.4 47.2 5.4 10.2 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.8 17.9 9.4 96.2 70.7 50.5 5.2 8.1 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 4.5 23.0 9.9 95.8 68.0 48.4 4.5 9.5 22.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 3.0 16.7 8.6 97.3 66.5 47.0 2.3 7.6 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 2.9 11.8 8.4 98.5 66.2 46.6 1.6 7.4 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 2.3 11.3 8.9 88.6 63.2 45.5 1.8 6.4 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 5.5 19.1 9.7 89.9 59.9 45.8 7.6 14.7 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 1.6 13.2 9.3 107.1 71.5 52.0 1.5 3.5 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 1.7 11.8 8.6 94.7 65.0 47.1 3.0 4.3 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 1.1 6.5 9.5 117.7 64.7 47.8 0.9 2.8 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 3.0 18.1 10.5 96.0 68.0 48.1 4.7 7.6 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 2.9 11.7 8.4 100.7 57.1 47.0 2.2 7.6 19.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.8 20.6 13.1 98.8 66.6 49.2 4.2 10.9 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.6 18.2 9.0 97.0 69.6 50.2 2.2 7.6 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 2.1 8.0 9.7 111.1 63.0 46.9 2.3 5.6 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 4.1 14.3 8.3 94.1 57.8 47.0 1.5 11.2 18.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 5.1 17.9 9.6 97.3 66.0 47.5 3.8 12.9 18.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 1.8 19.2 10.1 102.5 66.8 49.6 1.1 4.7 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.1 10.0 8.8 89.1 60.0 44.4 3.6 6.9 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.8 17.5 10.0 106.6 65.5 47.8 2.2 6.4 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.3 11.4 9.1 105.6 70.1 50.6 2.9 7.5 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 6.1 22.9 11.2 97.3 67.1 48.1 6.3 13.2 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 3.2 11.3 8.8 104.9 60.3 47.2 0.8 8.1 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------